College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China.
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, 211106, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Feb;29(10):14634-14653. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-16751-9. Epub 2021 Oct 6.
The underpinned study examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on Indian agriculture, cereal production, and yield using the country-level time series data of 1965-2015. With the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the long-term equilibrium association among the variables has been explored. The results reveal that climatic factors like CO emissions and temperature adversely affect agricultural output, while rainfall positively affects it. Likewise, non-climatic factors, including energy used, financial development, and labor force, affect agricultural production positively in the long run. The estimated long-run results further demonstrate that CO emissions and rainfall positively affect both cereal production and yield, while temperature adversely affects them. The results exhibit that the cereal cropped area, energy used, financial development, and labor force significantly and positively impact the long-run cereal production and yield. Finally, pairwise Granger causality test confirmed that both climatic and non-climatic factors are significantly influencing agriculture and cereal production in India. Based on these results, policymakers and governmental institutions should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the adverse climate change effects on agriculture and its production of cereals.
本研究利用 1965-2015 年印度全国时间序列数据，考察了气候和非气候因素对印度农业、谷物生产和产量的影响。采用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 边界检验方法，探讨了变量之间的长期均衡关系。结果表明，CO2 排放和温度等气候因素对农业产出产生不利影响，而降雨量则产生积极影响。同样，包括能源使用、金融发展和劳动力在内的非气候因素从长期来看对农业生产产生积极影响。估计的长期结果进一步表明，CO2 排放和降雨量对谷物生产和产量均产生积极影响，而温度则产生不利影响。结果表明，谷物种植面积、能源使用、金融发展和劳动力对长期谷物生产和产量有显著的积极影响。最后，两两格兰杰因果检验证实，气候和非气候因素都对印度农业和谷物生产有显著影响。基于这些结果，政策制定者和政府机构应制定一致的适应措施和缓解政策，以应对气候变化对农业及其谷物生产的不利影响。
