Postfire futures in southwestern forests: Climate and landscape influences on trajectories of recovery and conversion.

Southwestern ponderosa pine forests are vulnerable to fire-driven conversion in a warming and drying climate, yet little is known about what kinds of ecological communities may replace them. To characterize postfire vegetation trajectories and their environmental determinants, plant assemblages (361 sample plots including 229 vascular plant species, surveyed in 2017) were sampled within eight burns that occurred between 2000 and 2003. I used nonmetric multidimensional scaling, k-means clustering, principal component analysis, and random forest models to assess relationships between vegetation pattern, topographic and landscape factors, and gridded climate data. I describe seven postfire community types, including regenerating forests of ponderosa pine, aspen, and mixed conifers, shrub-dominated communities of Gambel oak and mixed species, and herb-dominated communities of native bunchgrasses and mixtures of ruderal, native, and nonnative species. Forest recovery was generally associated with cooler, mesic sites in proximity to forested refugia; shifts toward scrub and grassland types were most common in warmer, dryer locations distant from forested refugia. Under future climate scenarios, models project decreases in postfire forest recovery and increases in nonforest vegetation. However, forest to nonforest conversion was partially offset under a scenario of reduced burn severity and increased retention of forested refugia, highlighting important management opportunities. Burning trends in the southwestern United States suggest that postfire vegetation will occupy a growing landscape fraction, compelling renewed management focus on these areas and paradigm shifts that accommodate ecological change. I illustrate how management decisions around resisting, accepting, or directing change could be informed by an understanding of processes and patterns of postfire community variation and likely future trajectories.