Sun Qian, Feng Yan, Tang Yong, Kuang Wen, Javeed Sohail Ahmad
Management School, Hunan City University, Yiyang, China.
Hunan New Urbanization Research Institute, Yiyang, China.
Front Psychol. 2022 Aug 17;13:976236. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2022.976236. eCollection 2022.
Taking cities at prefecture-level and above in China as the research object, we theoretically analyze the effects of land finance on housing prices and economic growth as well as the effects of housing prices on economic growth, consider the mediating role of housing prices, and construct a random-effects model of land finance affecting economic growth. It is of great significance to make rational use of land finance to promote the economic development and formulate the "city specific policies" plan for the real estate market. The 278 resource-based cities with relatively well-developed land and real estate markets in China are selected to test the mediating effect of housing prices on land finance affecting economic growth in resource-based cities by type based on panel data from 2011-2019. The results show that (1) land finance significantly and positively affects economic growth and housing prices in cities at the prefecture-level and above nationwide, but there is some variability in the degree of influence. The central region has the smallest impact on economic growth but the largest impact on housing prices; the eastern region has the deepest impact on economic growth; and the western region has the smallest impact on housing prices. (2) In the national sample cities and cities in the northeast region, housing prices have a significant partial mediating effect at the 1% level on economic growth affected by land finance, accounting for 22.03 and 2.84%, respectively. The mediating effect of urban housing prices on land finance affects economic growth in the eastern, central, and western regions is not significant.
以中国地级及以上城市为研究对象，从理论上分析土地财政对房价和经济增长的影响以及房价对经济增长的影响，考虑房价的中介作用，构建土地财政影响经济增长的随机效应模型。合理利用土地财政促进经济发展并制定房地产市场的“一城一策”方案具有重要意义。选取中国278个土地和房地产市场相对发达的资源型城市，基于2011 - 2019年的面板数据，按类型检验房价在土地财政影响资源型城市经济增长中的中介效应。结果表明：（1）土地财政对全国地级及以上城市的经济增长和房价有显著正向影响，但影响程度存在一定差异。中部地区对经济增长的影响最小，但对房价的影响最大；东部地区对经济增长的影响最深；西部地区对房价的影响最小。（2）在全国样本城市和东北地区城市中，房价在土地财政影响经济增长方面，分别在1%水平上具有显著的部分中介效应，中介效应占比分别为22.03%和2.84%。城市房价在土地财政影响东部、中部和西部地区经济增长中的中介效应不显著。
