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刻画大流行浪潮:对新冠病毒在美国各县传播情况的潜在类别分析

Characterizing pandemic waves: A latent class analysis of COVID-19 spread across US counties.

作者信息

Sarwar Uddin Md Yusuf, Rafiq Rezwana

机构信息

University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO 64110, United States.

University of California, Irvine, CA 92617, United States.

出版信息

Pattern Recognit Lett. 2022 Oct;162:31-39. doi: 10.1016/j.patrec.2022.08.017. Epub 2022 Aug 31.

Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is observed to follow the shape of "waves" (i.e., the rise and fall of population-adjusted daily new infection cases with time). Different geographic regions of the world have experienced different position and span of these waves over time. The presence and strength of these waves broadly characterize the dynamics of the pandemic spread in a given area, so their characterization is important to draw meaningful intervention and mitigation plans tailored for that area. In this paper, we propose a novel technique to represent the trend of COVID-19 spread as a sequence of a fixed-length text string defined on three symbols: R (rise), S (Steady), and F (fall). These strings, termed as , enabled us searching for specific patterns in them (such as for waves). After analyzing county-level infection data, we observe that, US counties-despite their wide variation in trend strings-can be grouped into a number of heterogeneous classes each of which might have a representative COVID spread pattern over time (in terms of presence and propensity of waves). To this end, we conduct a latent class analysis to cluster 3142 US counties into four distinct classes based on their wave characteristics for one year pandemic data (January 2020 to January 2021). We observe that counties in each class have distinct socio-demographics, location, and human mobility characteristics. In short summary, counties have differing number of waves (class 1 counties have only one wave and class 3 counties have three) and their positions also vary (class 1 had the wave later in the year whereas class 3 had waves throughout the year). We believe that this way of characterizing pandemic waves would provide better insights in understanding the complex dynamics of COVID-19 spread and its future evolution, and would, therefore, help in taking class-specific policy interventions.

摘要

人们观察到,新冠疫情的传播呈现出“波浪”状(即经人口调整后的每日新增感染病例数随时间的起伏)。随着时间推移,世界不同地理区域经历了这些波浪的不同位置和跨度。这些波浪的出现及其强度大致表征了特定区域疫情传播的动态情况,因此对其进行表征对于制定针对该区域的有意义的干预和缓解计划非常重要。在本文中,我们提出了一种新颖的技术,将新冠疫情传播趋势表示为一个由三个符号定义的固定长度文本字符串序列:R(上升)、S(稳定)和F(下降)。这些字符串,称为 ,使我们能够在其中搜索特定模式(例如波浪模式)。在分析县级感染数据后,我们观察到,美国各县——尽管其趋势字符串差异很大——可以被分为若干异类类别,每个类别可能随着时间推移具有代表性的新冠传播模式(就波浪的出现和倾向而言)。为此,我们进行了潜在类别分析,根据一年疫情数据(2020年1月至2021年1月)的波浪特征,将3142个美国县聚类为四个不同类别。我们观察到,每个类别的县具有不同的社会人口统计学、地理位置和人口流动特征。简而言之,各县的波浪数量不同(1类县只有一个波浪,3类县有三个波浪),而且它们的位置也有所不同(1类县的波浪出现在当年较晚时候,而3类县全年都有波浪)。我们相信,这种表征疫情波浪的方式将为理解新冠疫情传播的复杂动态及其未来演变提供更好的见解,因此有助于采取针对特定类别的政策干预措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4713/9428116/07ddcb1435a2/gr1_lrg.jpg

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