PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Nat Commun. 2021 Apr 9;12(1):2140. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x.
Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global average, and in India and Indonesia later than global average. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets.
超过 100 个国家设定或正在考虑净零排放或碳中和目标。然而，大多数关于排放中和（如时间安排）的信息都是在全球层面提供的。在这里，我们根据综合评估模型的全球具有成本效益的 1.5°C 和 2°C 情景，来看各国的中和年份。这些结果表明，巴西和美国的国内温室气体和 CO 净零排放比全球平均水平早十年实现，而印度和印度尼西亚则比全球平均水平晚。这些结果取决于土地利用排放的核算等选择。结果还表明，碳储存和造林能力、收入、非 CO 排放份额以及运输部门排放会影响各国预测淘汰年份的差异。我们进一步将这些结果与另一种方法进行比较，即使用基于公平的规则来确定目标年份。这些结果可以为决策者提供关于净零目标的信息。
