Institute for Clinical Research, Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, National Institute of Health Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia.
Graduate School of Public Health, St Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan.
Tob Control. 2024 Apr 19;33(3):295-301. doi: 10.1136/tc-2022-057262.
This study aimed to quantify the long-term impact of implementing the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) compliant tobacco control measures, MPOWER, on smoking prevalence and mortality in men and women aged ≥20 years in Japan.
A Stock-and-Flow simulation model was used to project smoking prevalence and mortality from 2018 to 2050 under eight different scenarios: (1) maintaining the 2018 status quo, (2) implementation of smoke-free policies, (3) tobacco use cessation programmes, (4-5) health warning about the dangers of tobacco (labels, mass media), (6) enforcement of tobacco advertising bans or (7) tobacco taxation at the highest recommended level and (8) all these interventions combined.
Under the status quo, the smoking prevalence in Japan will decrease from 29.6% to 15.5% in men and 8.3% to 4.7% in women by 2050. Full implementation of MPOWER will accelerate this trend, dropping the prevalence to 10.6% in men and 3.2% in women, and save nearly a quarter million deaths by 2050. This reduction implies that Japan will only attain the current national target of 12% overall smoking prevalence in 2033, 8 years earlier than it would with the status quo (in 2041), a significant delay from the national government's 2022 deadline.
To bring forward the elimination of tobacco smoking and substantially reduce smoking-related deaths, the government of Japan should fulfil its commitment to the FCTC and adopt stringent tobacco control measures delineated by MPOWER and beyond.
本研究旨在量化实施世界卫生组织《烟草控制框架公约》（FCTC）合规性控烟措施（MPOWER）对日本≥20 岁男女吸烟率和死亡率的长期影响。
使用存量与流量模拟模型预测 2018 年至 2050 年 8 种不同情景下的吸烟率和死亡率：（1）维持 2018 年现状，（2）实施无烟政策，（3）烟草使用戒断计划，（4-5）健康警示烟草危害（标签、大众媒体），（6）执行烟草广告禁令或（7）烟草税征收至最高建议水平，以及（8）所有这些干预措施综合实施。
在现状下，日本男性吸烟率将从 29.6%降至 2050 年的 15.5%，女性将从 8.3%降至 4.7%。MPOWER 的全面实施将加速这一趋势，使男性吸烟率降至 10.6%，女性降至 3.2%，并在 2050 年前挽救近 25 万人的生命。这一减少意味着日本将仅在 2033 年达到目前 12%的全国总体吸烟率目标，比现状提前 8 年（2041 年），这比日本政府 2022 年的最后期限有显著延迟。
为了提前实现消除吸烟和大幅减少与吸烟相关的死亡，日本政府应履行其对 FCTC 的承诺，并采取 MPOWER 及以上规定的严格控烟措施。
