van Dalen Hendrik P, Henkens Kène
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI-KNAW)/University of Groningen, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, The Netherlands.
Tilburg School of Economics and Management (TISEM), Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands.
Economist (Leiden). 2022;170(4):401-433. doi: 10.1007/s10645-022-09411-x. Epub 2022 Sep 26.
Trust in pension providers by participants is essential because pension providers try to fulfill their pension promises in a fundamentally uncertain world. Reforms and crises are therefore the ultimate testing ground for pension trust. In this paper we estimate with repeated cross-sectional survey data how trust and distrust in Dutch pension funds and the government have evolved over the period 2004-2021 and what the impact of financial stability on trust in these two institutions has been. Financial stability of pension funds, measured by their funding ratio, is shown to affect trust positively, but it does not decrease distrust significantly. Based on the estimation results, achieving a situation where the majority of the adult population trusts pension funds is likely to be attained at funding ratios of 115 or higher. Financial stability of government (measured by government debt/GDP ratio) does not affect either trust or distrust levels. Underlying drivers of distrust and trust such as personal characteristics are also notable: self-employed are more prone to distrust pension funds than employees. Women are more than men likely to take a neutral position.
参与者对养老金提供商的信任至关重要，因为在一个根本不确定的世界中，养老金提供商试图履行其养老金承诺。因此，改革和危机是养老金信任的最终试验场。在本文中，我们利用重复横截面调查数据估计了2004年至2021年期间荷兰养老基金和政府的信任与不信任是如何演变的，以及金融稳定对这两个机构的信任有何影响。养老基金的财务稳定性以其资金比率衡量，结果显示对信任有积极影响，但对不信任的减少并不显著。根据估计结果，在资金比率达到115或更高时，可能会实现大多数成年人口信任养老基金的情况。政府的财务稳定性（以政府债务/国内生产总值比率衡量）对信任或不信任水平均无影响。不信任和信任的潜在驱动因素，如个人特征，也值得注意：个体经营者比雇员更容易不信任养老基金。女性比男性更有可能持中立态度。
