Li Han, Zhao Meng, Fei Gaoqiang, Wang Zemin, Wang Shuai, Wei Pingmin, Li Wei
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.
Department of Quality Management, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Front Med (Lausanne). 2022 Sep 20;9:969487. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2022.969487. eCollection 2022.
Lung cancer remains the most common malignancy in China. This study aims to provide scientific support for the prevention and treatment of lung cancer by analyzing the epidemiological trends of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Based on the global health exchange database (GHDx), joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses were performed to explore the trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019. According to incidence rates from 1990 to 2019, a model was constructed to predict the incidence rates in the next 5 years. In addition, changes in risk factors associated with lung cancer deaths were compared between 1990 and 2019 and between males and females in 2019. The results are as follows. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) of lung cancer among Chinese had overall upward trends from 1990 to 2019. The ASDRs of females and males in China decreased since 2010. Interestingly, from 2016 to 2019, the ASIRs and ASDRs of females rose significantly. The age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer in China increased with age, and the growth rate accelerated after 45 years old. After 2004, the relative risks of lung cancer incidence increased with the passage of the period. Also, after the 1950-1954 birth cohort, the risks of lung cancer incidence and death began to decrease. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicted that the incidence rates of lung cancer in China would continue to rise in the next 5 years. The top five risk factors for lung cancer deaths of both genders in 2019 were smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, secondhand smoke, high fasting plasma glucose, and household air pollution from solid fuels. The above results provided precise clues for the prevention and treatment of lung cancer in China.
肺癌仍然是中国最常见的恶性肿瘤。本研究旨在通过分析1990年至2019年中国肺癌的流行病学趋势，为肺癌的预防和治疗提供科学依据。基于全球卫生交流数据库（GHDx），进行了连接点分析和年龄-时期-队列分析，以探讨1990年至2019年肺癌发病率和死亡率的趋势。根据1990年至2019年的发病率，构建了一个模型来预测未来5年的发病率。此外，比较了1990年和2019年以及2019年男性和女性之间与肺癌死亡相关的危险因素变化。结果如下。1990年至2019年，中国肺癌的年龄标准化发病率（ASIRs）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDRs）总体呈上升趋势。自2010年以来，中国女性和男性的ASDRs有所下降。有趣的是，2016年至2019年，女性的ASIRs和ASDRs显著上升。年龄-时期-队列模型显示，中国肺癌的发病率和死亡率随年龄增长而增加，且45岁后增长率加快。2004年后，肺癌发病率的相对风险随时间推移而增加。此外，在1950 - 1954年出生队列之后，肺癌发病率和死亡风险开始下降。自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型预测，未来5年中国肺癌发病率将继续上升。2019年，男性和女性肺癌死亡的前五大危险因素是吸烟、环境颗粒物污染、二手烟、高空腹血糖和固体燃料造成的家庭空气污染。上述结果为中国肺癌的预防和治疗提供了精确线索。
