Long-term projection of future climate change over the twenty-first century in the Sahara region in Africa under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways scenarios.

Climate change affects air quality and people's health. Therefore, accurate prediction of future climate change is of great significance for human beings to better adapt and mitigate climate change. Using the projection simulation dataset of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, the future climate change in the Sahara region under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) is analyzed. The results show that annual and seasonal average surface air temperature in the Sahara region will continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century relative to the baseline period 1995-2014 if greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations continue increasing. Under the four SSPs scenarios, the warming in the Sahara region will be more pronounced than in the whole world through the twenty-first century. The annual maximum temperature (TX), the annual minimum temperature (TN), the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 35 °C (TX 35), and the annual count of days with maximum temperature above 40 °C (TX 40) in the Sahara region will continue to increase until the end of the twenty-first century under the four scenarios. The results of climate change prediction can provide scientific reference for climate policy-making.