Frith Michael J, Bowers Kate J, Johnson Shane D
Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo, 0851 Oslo, Norway.
Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, London WC1H 9EZ, UK.
J Crim Justice. 2022 Sep-Oct;82:101996. doi: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2022.101996. Epub 2022 Oct 24.
In response to COVID-19, governments imposed various restrictions on movement and activities. According to the routine activity perspective, these should alter where crime occurs. For burglary, greater household occupancy should increase guardianship against residential burglaries, particularly during the day considering factors such as working from home. Conversely, there should be less eyes on the street to protect against non-residential burglaries.
In this paper, we test these expectations using a spatio-temporal model with crime and Google Community Mobility data.
As expected, burglary declined during the pandemic and restrictions. Different types of burglary were, however, affected differently but largely consistent with theoretical expectation. Residential and attempted residential burglaries both decreased significantly. This was particularly the case during the day for completed residential burglaries. Moreover, while changes were coincident with the timing and relaxation of restrictions, they were better explained by fluctuations in household occupancy. However, while there were significant decreases in non-residential and attempted non-residential burglary, these did not appear to be related to changes to activity patterns, but rather the lockdown phase.
From a theoretical perspective, the results generally provide further support for routine activity perspective. From a practical perspective, they suggest considerations for anticipating future burglary trends.
为应对新冠疫情，各国政府对人员流动和活动施加了各种限制。根据日常活动理论，这些限制应会改变犯罪发生的地点。对于入室盗窃而言，更多人待在家中应会增强对住宅入室盗窃的防范，尤其是在考虑到诸如居家办公等因素的白天。相反，街道上的监视人员会减少，从而不利于防范非住宅入室盗窃。
在本文中，我们使用一个包含犯罪数据和谷歌社区流动性数据的时空模型来检验这些预期。
正如预期的那样，在疫情和限制措施实施期间，入室盗窃案件数量下降。然而，不同类型的入室盗窃受到的影响有所不同，但在很大程度上与理论预期一致。住宅入室盗窃和未遂住宅入室盗窃均显著减少。对于已完成的住宅入室盗窃而言，白天的情况尤其如此。此外，虽然这些变化与限制措施的实施时间和放宽时间一致，但家庭居住率的波动能更好地解释这些变化。然而，虽然非住宅入室盗窃和未遂非住宅入室盗窃显著减少，但这些似乎与活动模式的变化无关，而是与封锁阶段有关。
从理论角度来看，这些结果总体上为日常活动理论提供了进一步支持。从实践角度来看，它们为预测未来入室盗窃趋势提供了参考。
