Predicted heart age profile across 41 countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys in six world regions.

BACKGROUND

Predicted heart age (PHA) can simplify communicating the absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Few studies have characterized PHA across multiple populations, and none has described whether people with excess PHA are eligible for preventive treatment for CVD.

METHODS

Pooled analysis of 41 World Health Organization (WHO) STEPS surveys conducted in 41 countries in six world regions between 2013 and 2019. PHA was calculated as per the non-laboratory Framingham risk score in adults without history of CVD. We described the differences between chronological age and PHA, the distribution of PHA, and the proportion of people with excess PHA that were eligible for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment following the WHO guidelines. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess sociodemographic and health-related variables associated with PHA excess.

FINDINGS

94,655 individuals aged 30-74 years were included. 36% of those aged 30-34 years had a PHA of 30-34 years; 9% of those aged 60-64 years had a PHA of 60-64 years. Countries in Africa had the lowest prevalence of very high PHA (i.e., PHA exceeding chronological age in ≥5 years) and countries in Western Pacific had the highest. ≥50% of the population with PHA excess (i.e., PHA exceeding chronological age in ≥1 year) was not eligible for antihypertensive nor lipid-lowering treatment. Abdominal obesity, high total cholesterol, smoking and having diabetes were associated with higher odds of having PHA excess, whereas higher education and employment were inversely associated with excess PHA.

INTERPRETATION

PHA is generally higher than chronological age in LMICs and there are regional disparities. Most people with excess PHA would not be eligible to receive preventive medication.

FUNDING

RMC-L is supported by a Wellcome Trust International Training Fellowship (214185/Z/18/Z).