Division of Epidemiology and Community Health School of Public Health University of Minnesota Minneapolis MN.
Division of Cardiology and Department of Medicine, Hennepin Healthcare University of Minnesota Medical School Minneapolis MN.
J Am Heart Assoc. 2022 Nov;11(21):e026685. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.122.026685. Epub 2022 Oct 31.
Background Previous studies of worsening chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on declining estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or increasing urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) are limited to later middle-age and older adults. We examined associations of CKD progression and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in younger adults. Methods and Results We studied 4382 adults in CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) initially aged 27 to 41 years and prospectively over 20 years. Five-year transition probabilities across CKD risk categories were based on eGFR and UACR measured at each exam. Proportional hazards models predicted incident CVD and all-cause mortality by time-varying CKD risk category, adjusting for demographics and CVD risk factors. Progression of CKD risk categories over 20 years occurred in 28.7% (1256/4382) of participants, driven by increases in UACR, but including 5.8% (n=255) with eGFR<60 mL/min per 1.73 m or UACR ≥300 mg/g. Compared with eGFR ≥60 and UACR <10, demographic and smoking-adjusted hazard ratios for CVD were 1.62 (95% CI, 1.21-2.18) for low CKD risk (eGFR ≥60 with UACR 10-29) and 13.65 (95% CI, 7.52-24.79) for very high CKD risk (eGFR <30 or eGFR 30-44 with UACR 30-299; or eGFR 30-59 with UACR ≥300). Corresponding hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.08-1.88) and 14.75 (95% CI, 9.97-21.82). Although CVD associations were attenuated after adjustment for mediating CVD risk factors, all-cause mortality associations remained statistically significant. Conclusions Among young to middle-aged adults, progression to higher CKD risk category was common. Routine monitoring eGFR and UACR holds promise for prevention of CVD and total mortality.
背景:基于估算肾小球滤过率 (eGFR) 下降或尿白蛋白/肌酐比值 (UACR) 升高的慢性肾脏病 (CKD) 恶化的先前研究仅限于中老年人群。我们研究了年轻成年人 CKD 进展和心血管疾病 (CVD) 及死亡率的发生率。
方法和结果:我们对 4382 名在 CARDIA(年轻人冠状动脉风险发展研究)中年龄在 27 至 41 岁的成年人进行了研究,并前瞻性随访 20 年。在每次检查时测量 eGFR 和 UACR,基于这些数据确定 5 年 CKD 风险类别转变概率。通过时变 CKD 风险类别预测 CVD 和全因死亡率,调整了人口统计学和 CVD 危险因素。在 20 年的时间里,28.7%(4382 名参与者中的 1256 名)的参与者出现了 CKD 风险类别的进展,这主要是由 UACR 的增加引起的,但其中包括 5.8%(n=255)的患者 eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m 或 UACR≥300 mg/g。与 eGFR≥60 和 UACR<10 相比,在调整了人口统计学和吸烟因素后,CVD 的危险比为低 CKD 风险(eGFR≥60 且 UACR 为 10-29)为 1.62(95%CI,1.21-2.18),而极高 CKD 风险(eGFR<30 或 eGFR 30-44 且 UACR 为 30-299;或 eGFR 30-59 且 UACR≥300)为 13.65(95%CI,7.52-24.79)。全因死亡率的相应危险比为 1.42(95%CI,1.08-1.88)和 14.75(95%CI,9.97-21.82)。尽管在调整了中介 CVD 危险因素后,CVD 相关性减弱,但全因死亡率相关性仍然具有统计学意义。
结论:在年轻至中年成年人中,向更高的 CKD 风险类别进展很常见。常规监测 eGFR 和 UACR 有望预防 CVD 和全因死亡率。
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