Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, 980-8578, Japan.
Department of Drug Discovery Medicine, Medical Innovation Center, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 10;12(1):19177. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-23633-8.
The infectious propagation of SARS-CoV-2 is continuing worldwide, and specifically, Japan is facing severe circumstances. Medical resource maintenance and action limitations remain the central measures. An analysis of long-term follow-up reports in Japan shows that the infection number follows a unique wavy oscillation, increasing and decreasing over time. However, only a few studies explain the infection wavy oscillation. This study introduces a novel nonlinear mathematical model of the new infection wavy oscillation by applying the macromolecule diffusion theory. In this model, the diffusion coefficient that depends on population density gives nonlinearity in infection propagation. As a result, our model accurately simulated infection wavy oscillations, and the infection wavy oscillation frequency and amplitude were closely linked with the recovery rate of infected individuals. In conclusion, our model provides a novel nonlinear contact infection analysis framework.
SARS-CoV-2 的传染性在全球范围内持续传播，特别是日本正面临严峻形势。维持医疗资源和行动限制仍然是核心措施。对日本长期随访报告的分析表明，感染数量呈独特的波动式震荡，随时间增加和减少。然而，只有少数研究解释了感染的波动式震荡。本研究通过应用大分子扩散理论，提出了一种新的感染波动式震荡的非线性数学模型。在该模型中，依赖于人口密度的扩散系数赋予了感染传播的非线性。结果，我们的模型准确地模拟了感染的波动式震荡，并且感染的波动式震荡频率和幅度与感染个体的恢复率密切相关。总之，我们的模型提供了一种新的非线性接触感染分析框架。
