Céspedes Jonnathan, Sylvester Janelle M, Pérez-Marulanda Lisset, Paz-Garcia Paula, Reymondin Louis, Khodadadi Mehran, Tello Jhon J, Castro-Nunez Augusto
The Alliance of Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Km 17 Recta Cali-Palmira, Cali, Colombia.
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
J For Res (Harbin). 2022 Nov 16:1-13. doi: 10.1007/s11676-022-01561-7.
As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, questions arose as to whether the pandemic would amplify or pacify tropical deforestation. Early reports warned of increased deforestation rates; however, these studies were limited to a few months in 2020 or to selected regions. To better understand how the pandemic influenced tropical deforestation globally, this study used historical deforestation data (2004-2019) from the Terra-i pantropical land cover change monitoring system to project expected deforestation trends for 2020, which were used to determine whether observed deforestation deviated from expected trajectories after the first COVID-19 cases were reported. Time series analyses were conducted at the regional level for the Americas, Africa and Asia and at the country level for Brazil, Colombia, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia. Our results suggest that the pandemic did not alter the course of deforestation trends in some countries (e.g., Brazil, Indonesia), while it did in others (e.g., Peru). We posit the importance of monitoring the long-term effects of the pandemic on deforestation trends as countries prioritize economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11676-022-01561-7.
随着新冠疫情的蔓延，出现了关于疫情会加剧还是缓和热带森林砍伐的问题。早期报告警告森林砍伐率上升；然而，这些研究仅限于2020年的几个月或特定地区。为了更好地了解疫情如何在全球范围内影响热带森林砍伐，本研究使用了Terra-i泛热带土地覆盖变化监测系统的历史森林砍伐数据（2004 - 2019年）来预测2020年的预期森林砍伐趋势，这些趋势用于确定在报告首例新冠病例后观察到的森林砍伐是否偏离预期轨迹。在美洲、非洲和亚洲的区域层面以及巴西、哥伦比亚、秘鲁、刚果民主共和国和印度尼西亚的国家层面进行了时间序列分析。我们的结果表明，疫情在一些国家（如巴西、印度尼西亚）并未改变森林砍伐趋势的进程，而在其他国家（如秘鲁）则有所改变。我们认为，随着各国在疫情后优先考虑经济复苏，监测疫情对森林砍伐趋势的长期影响具有重要意义。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11676 - 022 - 01561 - 7获取的补充材料。
