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从意大利的新冠疫情中汲取经验，推进多灾种灾害风险管理。

Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy to advance multi-hazard disaster risk management.

作者信息

Terzi Stefano, De Angeli Silvia, Miozzo Davide, Massucchielli Lorenzo Stefano, Szarzynski Joerg, Carturan Fabio, Boni Giorgio

机构信息

Eurac Research, Center for Global Mountain Safeguard Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100 Bolzano, Italy.

Eurac Research, Institute for Earth Observation, Viale Druso 1, 39100 Bolzano, Italy.

出版信息

Prog Disaster Sci. 2022 Dec;16:100268. doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2022.100268. Epub 2022 Nov 13.

DOI:10.1016/j.pdisas.2022.100268
PMID:36407499
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9659362/
Abstract

COVID-19 challenged all national emergency management systems worldwide overlapping with other natural hazards. We framed a 'parallel phases' Disaster Risk Management (DRM) model to overcome the limitations of the existing models when dealing with complex multi-hazard risk conditions. We supported the limitations analysing Italian Red Cross data on past and ongoing emergencies including COVID-19 and we outlined three guidelines for advancing multi-hazard DRM: (i) exploiting the low emergency intensity of slow-onset hazards for preparedness actions; (ii) increasing the internal resources and making them available for international support; (iii) implementing multi-hazard seasonal impact-based forecasts to foster the planning of anticipatory actions.

摘要

新冠疫情对全球所有国家应急管理系统构成挑战，且与其他自然灾害相互交织。我们构建了一个“并行阶段”灾害风险管理（DRM）模型，以克服现有模型在应对复杂多灾种风险状况时的局限性。我们通过分析意大利红十字会关于包括新冠疫情在内的过去及当前紧急情况的数据，证实了这些局限性，并概述了推进多灾种灾害风险管理的三项指导原则：（i）利用缓发性灾害的低紧急强度开展备灾行动；（ii）增加内部资源并使其可用于国际援助；（iii）实施基于多灾种季节影响的预测，以促进前瞻性行动的规划。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/fc985838291a/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/de9296d3c6c6/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/6868fdeabb79/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/310b85aec818/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/201b28de32c8/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/fc985838291a/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/de9296d3c6c6/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/6868fdeabb79/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/310b85aec818/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/201b28de32c8/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7865/9659362/fc985838291a/gr5_lrg.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Policy design and state capacity in the COVID-19 emergency in Italy: if you are not prepared for the (un)expected, you can be only what you already are.意大利新冠疫情紧急状态下的政策设计与国家能力：如果你没有为（未）预料之事做好准备，那你就只能维持现状。
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Opinion: Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness.
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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 May 11;118(19). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2106795118.
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Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 23;10(1):20367. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77292-8.
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The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.新冠病毒传播建模和预测面临的挑战。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 21;117(29):16732-16738. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2006520117. Epub 2020 Jul 2.
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