Molineaux L, Dietz K, Thomas A
Bull World Health Organ. 1978;56(4):565-71.
The malaria model previously fitted to 1 year of baseline data from the Garki District in the Sudan savanna of northern Nigeria was tested against data collected in the same area over a period of 3 years, including 1(1/2) years during which the insides of houses in certain villages were sprayed with propoxur. It was also tested against data collected in Kisumu, Kenya, also over a period of 3 years, including 20 months during which the insides of houses in part of the area were sprayed with fenitrothion. The test consisted in using the vectorial capacity, calculated from the entomological observations made in the above places and periods, as input in the Garki model while keeping the other parameters as fitted to the Garki baseline data, and in comparing the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia as estimated by the model to that actually observed. There was relatively good agreement and the model is considered epidemiologically satisfactory and fit for use in planning malaria control operations.
之前根据尼日利亚北部苏丹稀树草原地区加基尔迪区1年基线数据拟合的疟疾模型，针对同一地区3年期间收集的数据进行了检验，其中包括1.5年某些村庄房屋内部喷洒残杀威的时间。该模型还针对肯尼亚基苏木地区3年期间收集的数据进行了检验，其中包括该地区部分房屋内部喷洒杀螟硫磷的20个月。检验方法是将根据上述地点和时间段的昆虫学观察计算得出的媒介能量作为加基尔迪模型的输入，同时保持其他参数与加基尔迪基线数据拟合时的参数一致，并将模型估计的恶性疟原虫血症患病率与实际观察到的患病率进行比较。两者之间存在较好的一致性，该模型在流行病学上被认为是令人满意的，适合用于疟疾控制行动的规划。
