Department of Psychology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA.
Sci Adv. 2023 Jan 4;9(1):eadd2976. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add2976.
Organisms learn from prediction errors (PEs) to predict the future. Laboratory studies using small financial outcomes find that humans use PEs to update expectations and link individual differences in PE-based learning to internalizing disorders. Because of the low-stakes outcomes in most tasks, it is unclear whether PE learning emerges in naturalistic, high-stakes contexts and whether individual differences in PE learning predict psychopathology risk. Using experience sampling to assess 625 college students' expected exam grades, we found evidence of PE-based learning and a general tendency to discount negative PEs, an "optimism bias." However, individuals with elevated negative emotionality, a personality trait linked to the development of anxiety disorders, displayed a global pessimism and learning differences that impeded accurate expectations and predicted future anxiety symptoms. A sensitivity to PEs combined with an aversion to negative PEs may result in a pessimistic and inaccurate model of the world, leading to anxiety.
生物通过预测误差 (PE) 进行学习以预测未来。使用小额财务结果的实验室研究发现，人类使用 PE 来更新预期，并将基于 PE 的学习的个体差异与内化障碍联系起来。由于大多数任务的结果风险较低，因此尚不清楚 PE 学习是否出现在自然的、高风险的环境中，以及基于 PE 的学习的个体差异是否预测精神病理学风险。我们使用经验抽样来评估 625 名大学生对考试成绩的预期，发现了基于 PE 的学习的证据，以及普遍存在的对负 PE 的折扣倾向，即“乐观偏差”。然而，具有较高负性情绪的个体，一种与焦虑障碍发展相关的人格特质，表现出普遍的悲观情绪和学习差异，这阻碍了准确的预期并预测了未来的焦虑症状。对 PE 的敏感性加上对负 PE 的厌恶可能导致对世界的悲观和不准确的模型，从而导致焦虑。
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