W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287.
Stanford University Graduate School of Business, Stanford, CA 94305.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Jan 10;120(2):e2208111120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2208111120. Epub 2023 Jan 6.
We examine how policymakers react to a pandemic with uncertainty around key epidemiological and economic policy parameters by embedding a macroeconomic SIR model in a robust control framework. Uncertainty about disease virulence and severity leads to stricter and more persistent quarantines, while uncertainty about the economic costs of mitigation leads to less stringent quarantines. On net, an uncertainty-averse planner adopts stronger mitigation measures. Intuitively, the cost of underestimating the pandemic is out-of-control growth and permanent loss of life, while the cost of underestimating the economic consequences of quarantine is more transitory.
我们通过将一个宏观经济 SIR 模型嵌入到稳健控制框架中，研究了决策者在关键流行病学和经济政策参数存在不确定性的情况下如何应对大流行病。疾病毒力和严重程度的不确定性导致更严格和更持久的隔离，而缓解经济成本的不确定性则导致隔离措施不太严格。总的来说，厌恶不确定性的规划者会采取更强有力的缓解措施。直观地说，低估大流行病的代价是失控的增长和永久性的生命损失，而低估隔离的经济后果的代价则是更短暂的。
