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新冠疫情爆发对日本航运业的影响:一种事件研究方法。

The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Japanese shipping industry: An event study approach.

作者信息

Sakawa Hideaki, Watanabel Naoki

机构信息

Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University, Nagoya, Aichi, Japan.

出版信息

Transp Policy (Oxf). 2023 Jan;130:130-140. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.11.002. Epub 2022 Nov 11.

Abstract

This paper examines the stock market response of Japanese shipping firms on the COVID-19 outbreak. We adopt an event study method to investigate the announcement effect of COVID-19-related news such as the incident of largest numbers of cases in a cruise ship, the on February 3, 2020 and the tight border closing by the Japanese Government on March 9, 2020. Our empirical results show that the negative abnormal returns are significant for both of these pessimistic COVID-19-related events. The negative return on the incident of persisted for 30 trading days. Moreover, the negative abnormal return of port operations was stronger than maritime transportation after 30 days. Furthermore, we find that the tight border closing policy persisted for only eight trading days. Finally, we find that government policy responses are effective to mitigate negative announcement effects on COVID-related news post the tightened border control.

摘要

本文考察了日本航运公司在新冠疫情爆发时的股市反应。我们采用事件研究法来调查与新冠疫情相关新闻的公告效应,如2020年2月3日一艘游轮上出现大量病例事件以及2020年3月9日日本政府收紧边境关闭措施。我们的实证结果表明,这两个与新冠疫情相关的悲观事件均产生了显著的负异常回报。2月3日事件的负回报持续了30个交易日。此外,30天后港口运营的负异常回报强于海上运输。此外,我们发现边境收紧政策仅持续了八个交易日。最后,我们发现政府的政策应对措施有效地减轻了边境管控收紧后与新冠疫情相关新闻的负面公告效应。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/87b8/9651475/ed0942ecac9a/gr1_lrg.jpg

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