Shen Bing, Yang Xiaodong, Xu Yang, Ge Wenfeng, Liu Guangliang, Su Xufeng, Zhao Shikuan, Dagestani Abd Alwahed, Ran Qiying
School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830047, China.
College of Finance and Taxation, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi, 830047, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Mar;30(14):41553-41569. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25169-4. Epub 2023 Jan 12.
Industrial structure low-carbon restructuring is an essential channel to accelerate China's economic growth and fulfilling carbon emission reduction goals. Whether carbon emission trading pilot policy, as an influential carbon reduction instrument, fosters industrial structure low-carbon restructuring is of major significance to green economic development. This paper empirically investigates the shock of the carbon emission trading pilot policy on industrial structure low-carbon restructuring using the differences-in-differences (DID) and synthetic control method (SCM). Statistics reveal that sectors with low carbon productivity, such as electricity, steam, and hot water production and supply, ferrous metal smelting and pressing, etc., and sectors with high carbon productivity, such as electrical equipment and machinery, electronics and telecommunication equipment, etc. The industrial structure did not develop a stable trend of change before the 12th Five-Year Plan, but a stable trend of low-carbon restructuring emerged after such a period. Carbon emission trading pilot policy significantly facilitates industrial structural low-carbon restructuring. Carbon emission trading pilot policy inhibits energy-intensive industries in the industrial sector significantly, which promotes industrial structure low-carbon restructuring. Therefore, policymakers need to develop a nationwide carbon emission trading market that includes more industries to guide production factors to industrial sectors with high carbon productivity for industrial restructuring and dual carbon goals.
产业结构低碳转型是加速中国经济增长和实现碳排放减排目标的重要途径。碳排放权交易试点政策作为一项有影响力的碳减排工具，能否促进产业结构低碳转型对绿色经济发展具有重大意义。本文运用双重差分法（DID）和合成控制法（SCM）实证研究了碳排放权交易试点政策对产业结构低碳转型的冲击。统计显示，低碳生产率较低的行业，如电力、热力生产和供应业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业等，以及高碳生产率的行业，如电气机械和器材制造业、电子及通信设备制造业等。在“十二五”规划之前，产业结构没有形成稳定的变化趋势，但在此之后出现了稳定的低碳转型趋势。碳排放权交易试点政策显著促进了产业结构的低碳转型。碳排放权交易试点政策显著抑制了工业部门中的能源密集型产业，从而推动了产业结构的低碳转型。因此，政策制定者需要建立一个覆盖更多行业的全国性碳排放交易市场，引导生产要素流向高碳生产率的工业部门，以实现产业结构调整和双碳目标。
