用于决策支持的非线性时间序列预测：2021年新冠疫情期间智利圣地亚哥重症监护病房床位的短期需求
Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.
作者信息
Quiroga Bernardo F, Vásquez Cristián, Vicuña M Ignacia
机构信息
School of Management Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Av. Vicuña Mackenna 4860 Macul Santiago RM 7820436 Chile.
出版信息
Int Trans Oper Res. 2022 Oct 20. doi: 10.1111/itor.13222.
Abstract
In Chile, due to the explosive increase of new Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases during the first part of 2021, the ability of health services to accommodate new incoming cases was jeopardized. It has become necessary to be able to manage intensive care unit (ICU) capacity, and for this purpose, monitoring both the evolution of new cases and the demand for ICU beds has become urgent. This paper presents short-term forecast models for the number of new cases and the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs in the Metropolitan Region in Chile.
摘要
在智利，由于2021年上半年新型冠状病毒病2019（COVID-19）病例呈爆发式增长，医疗卫生服务机构接纳新增病例的能力受到了威胁。因此，必须对重症监护病房（ICU）的容量进行管理，为此，监测新增病例的发展趋势以及ICU床位的需求变得刻不容缓。本文介绍了智利首都大区新增病例数和入住ICU的COVID-19患者数量的短期预测模型。
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