Hocine Amin, Kouaissah Noureddine, Lozza Sergio Ortobelli
University of Bergamo, Department of MEQM, Via dei Caniana 2, Bergamo, 24 127, Italy.
Africa Business School, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Parc Technopolis -Rabat-Shore, Rabat, Morocco.
Comput Ind Eng. 2023 Mar;177:109017. doi: 10.1016/j.cie.2023.109017. Epub 2023 Jan 18.
The consequences of any extreme event can deteriorate any system at all levels: socially, economically, and operationally. The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), provides a good example of the tremendous impact that can be produced by such extreme events. To effectively measure and mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and relaunch the Moroccan economy, policymakers need to determine which sectors have been most impacted. Due to the high level of uncertainty and complexity surrounding this health crisis, this study first develops a new technique for dealing with decision problems under uncertainty using exclusive-or (XOR) logic, called the XOR-analytic network process (XOR-ANP). Then, the proposed technique is adopted to assess the impact of COVID-19 on seven relevant sectors (tourism, transport, industrial, financial, agriculture, education, and healthcare) by considering social, operational, and economic dimensions. The key findings show that COVID-19 has a significant impact on Moroccan's tourism, healthcare, and transport sectors, with respect to social-economic and operational dimensions by 30.99%, 21.81%, and 17.88%, respectively. These results indicate that most of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, such as "Healthy Lives", "Decent Work" and "Economic Growth" have been severely impacted, thus, assistance and recovery are urgently needed.
任何极端事件的后果都会在社会、经济和运营等各个层面使任何系统恶化。由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）引起的新冠疫情就是此类极端事件可能产生巨大影响的一个很好例子。为了有效衡量和减轻新冠疫情的影响并重启摩洛哥经济，政策制定者需要确定哪些部门受到的影响最大。由于围绕这场健康危机存在高度的不确定性和复杂性，本研究首先开发了一种使用异或（XOR）逻辑处理不确定性下决策问题的新技术，称为异或分析网络过程（XOR-ANP）。然后，通过考虑社会、运营和经济维度，采用所提出的技术评估新冠疫情对七个相关部门（旅游、交通、工业、金融、农业、教育和医疗保健）的影响。主要研究结果表明，就社会经济和运营维度而言，新冠疫情分别对摩洛哥的旅游、医疗保健和交通部门产生了30.99%、21.81%和17.88%的重大影响。这些结果表明，2030年联合国的大多数可持续发展目标，如“健康生活”“体面工作”和“经济增长”都受到了严重影响，因此，迫切需要援助和复苏。
