Arthi Vellore, Parman John
Explor Econ Hist. 2021 Jan;79:101381. doi: 10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101381. Epub 2020 Nov 3.
How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a heavy human cost-taken together, this public health crisis and its attendant economic downturn appear poised to dwarf the scope, scale, and disruptiveness of most modern pandemics. What evidence we do have about other modern pandemics is largely limited to short-run impacts. Consequently, recent experience can do little to help us anticipate and respond to COVID-19's potential long-run impact on individuals over decades and even generations. History, however, offers a solution. Historical crises offer closer analogues to COVID-19 in each of its key dimensions-as a global pandemic, as a global recession-and offer the runway necessary to study the life-course and intergenerational outcomes. In this paper, we review the evidence on the long-run effects on health, labor, and human capital of both historical pandemics (with a focus on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic) and historical recessions (with a focus on the Great Depression). We conclude by discussing how past crises can inform our approach to COVID-19-helping tell us what to look for, what to prepare for, and what data we ought to collect now.
从长远来看,新冠疫情可能如何影响人力资本和福祉?新冠疫情已经造成了沉重的人员伤亡——总体而言,这场公共卫生危机及其随之而来的经济衰退,其规模、范围和破坏性似乎会超过大多数现代疫情。我们现有的关于其他现代疫情的证据,很大程度上仅限于短期影响。因此,近期的经验几乎无法帮助我们预测和应对新冠疫情在几十年甚至几代人时间里对个人可能产生的长期影响。然而,历史提供了一个解决办法。历史危机在其每个关键维度上都与新冠疫情有更紧密的相似之处——作为一场全球大流行、作为一场全球衰退——并提供了研究人生历程和代际结果所需的时间跨度。在本文中,我们回顾了关于历史疫情(重点是1918年西班牙大流感)和历史衰退(重点是大萧条)对健康、劳动力和人力资本长期影响的证据。我们最后讨论过去的危机如何为我们应对新冠疫情提供指导——帮助我们了解应该寻找什么、应该为哪些情况做准备,以及我们现在应该收集哪些数据。