Wang Xue, Dai Miao, Wang Wenbin, Gao Yue, Qi Tao, Dong Xiaolan, Ren Pinqiao, Ding Ning
China Auto Information Technology (Tianjin) Co., Ltd., China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Tianjin, 300300, China.
Beijing University of Technology, National Engineering Laboratory for Industrial Big-Data Application Technology, Beijing, 100124, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Apr 1;331:117262. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117262. Epub 2023 Jan 31.
Commercial vehicles are important within the context of global warming, since they exhibit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are disproportionate to their quantity. The aim of this study was to create a bottom-up GHG emissions assessment model which considers GHG emissions of newly produced commercial vehicles and those in current use. Through this study, the number of future commercial vehicles were predicted, thereby facilitating a simulation of future GHG emissions. Our results show that the total GHG emissions of commercial vehicles in 2019 was 580 million t CO. Among them, the GHG emissions stemming from the production of new commercial vehicles accounted for ∼0.3% of the emissions, whereas the use stage accounted for more than 99.0%. Moreover, the future ownership of commercial vehicles depends on GDP and the demand of freight and passenger transport. The ownership of commercial vehicles was predicted about 36.61 million in 2025, 45.44 million in 2030 and 55.85 million in 2035. The carbon peak of commercial vehicles varies across different scenarios, peaking around 2031-2034, at 680-780 million t CO. This study systematically simulated the carbon peak of commercial vehicles, contributing toward a deeper understanding of commercial vehicles within the context of GHG emissions. These results can be applied toward creating quantitatively-driven pathways for carbon peak or neutrality targets in the commercial vehicle sector.
商用车在全球变暖背景下具有重要意义，因为它们的温室气体（GHG）排放量与其数量不成比例。本研究的目的是创建一个自下而上的温室气体排放评估模型，该模型考虑新生产商用车以及在用商用车的温室气体排放。通过本研究，预测了未来商用车的数量，从而便于对未来温室气体排放进行模拟。我们的结果表明，2019年商用车的温室气体排放总量为5.8亿吨二氧化碳当量。其中，新生产商用车产生的温室气体排放约占排放总量的0.3%，而使用阶段占比超过99.0%。此外，商用车的未来保有量取决于国内生产总值以及货运和客运需求。预计2025年商用车保有量约为3661万辆，2030年为4544万辆，2035年为5585万辆。商用车的碳峰值在不同情景下有所不同，在2031 - 2034年左右达到峰值，为6.8 - 7.8亿吨二氧化碳当量。本研究系统地模拟了商用车的碳峰值，有助于在温室气体排放背景下更深入地了解商用车。这些结果可用于为商用车领域的碳峰值或碳中和目标创建定量驱动的路径。
