Department of Medicine, Infectious Disease Hospital, Kano, Kano State, Nigeria.
Department of Medicine, Kwanar Dawaki Isolation Center, Kano, Kano State, Nigeria.
PLoS One. 2023 Feb 6;18(2):e0281455. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281455. eCollection 2023.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of this study is to identify the clinical predictors of mortality among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia during first and second waves in a treatment center in northwestern Nigeria.
This was a retrospective cohort study of 195 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between April 2020 to March 2021 at a designated COVID-19 isolation center in Kano State, Northwest Nigeria. Data were summarized using frequencies and percentages. Unadjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals and p-values were obtained. To determine independent determinants of mortality, we performed a stepwise multivariate logistic regression model.
Of 195 patients studied, 21(10.77%) patients died. Males comprised 158 (81.03%) of the study population. In the adjusted stepwise logistic regression analysis, age>64 years (OR = 9.476, 95% CI: 2.181-41.165), second wave of the pandemic (OR = 49.340, 95% CI:6.222-391.247), cardiac complications (OR = 24.984, 95% CI: 3.618-172.508), hypertension (OR = 5.831, 95% CI:1.413-24.065) and lowest systolic blood pressure while on admission greater than or equal to 90mmHg were independent predictors of mortality (OR = 0.111, 95%CI: 0.021-0.581).
Strategies targeted to prioritize needed care to patients with identified factors that predict mortality might improve patient outcome.
2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）已成为全球发病率和死亡率的重要原因。本研究的目的是确定尼日利亚西北部一家治疗中心 COVID-19 肺炎患者在第一波和第二波疫情中的死亡临床预测因素。
这是一项回顾性队列研究，纳入了 2020 年 4 月至 2021 年 3 月期间在尼日利亚西北部卡诺州指定的 COVID-19 隔离中心住院的 195 例 COVID-19 患者。数据采用频率和百分比进行总结。获得未经调整的优势比和 95%置信区间和 p 值。为了确定死亡率的独立决定因素，我们进行了逐步多变量逻辑回归模型分析。
在研究的 195 例患者中，有 21 例（10.77%）患者死亡。男性占研究人群的 158 例（81.03%）。在调整后的逐步逻辑回归分析中，年龄>64 岁（OR=9.476，95%CI：2.181-41.165）、第二波大流行（OR=49.340，95%CI：6.222-391.247）、心脏并发症（OR=24.984，95%CI：3.618-172.508）、高血压（OR=5.831，95%CI：1.413-24.065）和入院时收缩压最低且大于或等于 90mmHg 是死亡的独立预测因素（OR=0.111，95%CI：0.021-0.581）。
针对具有预测死亡率的特定因素的患者，优先提供必要的护理的策略可能会改善患者的预后。
