UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK.
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2023 Jun;38(6):521-531. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.01.001. Epub 2023 Feb 10.
In most circumstances, probability sampling is the only way to ensure unbiased inference about population quantities where a complete census is not possible. As we enter the era of 'big data', however, nonprobability samples, whose sampling mechanisms are unknown, are undergoing a renaissance. We explain why the use of nonprobability samples can lead to spurious conclusions, and why seemingly large nonprobability samples can be (effectively) very small. We also review some recent controversies surrounding the use of nonprobability samples in biodiversity monitoring. These points notwithstanding, we argue that nonprobability samples can be useful, provided that their limitations are assessed, mitigated where possible and clearly communicated. Ecologists can learn much from other disciplines on each of these fronts.
在大多数情况下，概率抽样是确保在无法进行全面普查的情况下对总体数量进行无偏推断的唯一方法。然而，随着我们进入“大数据”时代，其抽样机制未知的非概率抽样正在复兴。我们解释了为什么使用非概率样本会导致虚假结论，以及为什么看似很大的非概率样本实际上可能（有效）非常小。我们还回顾了最近在生物多样性监测中使用非概率样本的一些争议。尽管如此，我们认为，只要评估非概率样本的局限性、尽可能减轻其影响并清楚地传达这些局限性，非概率样本就可以是有用的。生态学家可以在这些方面从其他学科中学到很多东西。
