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从因果关系到因果效应。

From cause and effect to causes and effects.

机构信息

School of Medicine and Public Health, Faculty of Health and Medicine, University of Newcastle, Holgate, New South Wales, Australia.

Foundation President, International Society for Systems and Complexity Sciences for Health, Waitsfield, Vermont, USA.

出版信息

J Eval Clin Pract. 2024 Mar;30(2):296-308. doi: 10.1111/jep.13814. Epub 2023 Feb 13.

DOI:10.1111/jep.13814
PMID:36779244
Abstract

It is now-at least loosely-acknowledged that most health and clinical outcomes are influenced by different interacting causes. Surprisingly, medical research studies are nearly universally designed to study-usually in a binary way-the effect of a single cause. Recent experiences during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic brought to the forefront that most of our challenges in medicine and healthcare deal with systemic, that is, interdependent and interconnected problems. Understanding these problems defy simplistic dichotomous research methodologies. These insights demand a shift in our thinking from 'cause and effect' to 'causes and effects' since this transcends the classical way of Cartesian reductionist thinking. We require a shift to a 'causes and effects' frame so we can choose the research methodology that reflects the relationships between variables of interest-one-to-one, one-to-many, many-to-one or many-to-many. One-to-one (or cause and effect) relationships are amenable to the traditional randomized control trial design, while all others require systemic designs to understand 'causes and effects'. Researchers urgently need to re-evaluate their science models and embrace research designs that allow an exploration of the clinically obvious multiple 'causes and effects' on health and disease. Clinical examples highlight the application of various systemic research methodologies and demonstrate how 'causes and effects' explain the heterogeneity of clinical outcomes. This shift in scientific thinking will allow us to find the necessary personalized or precise clinical interventions that address the underlying reasons for the variability of clinical outcomes and will contribute to greater health equity.

摘要

现在,至少可以松散地承认,大多数健康和临床结果都受到不同相互作用的原因的影响。令人惊讶的是,医学研究几乎普遍设计用于研究单一原因的影响,通常采用二元方式。在 2019 年冠状病毒病大流行期间的最近经验将我们在医学和医疗保健方面的大多数挑战摆在了最前沿,这些挑战涉及系统性的、即相互依存和相互关联的问题。理解这些问题需要我们从“因果关系”转变为“原因和结果”,因为这超越了笛卡尔简化思维的经典方式。我们需要从“因果关系”转变为“原因和结果”的框架,以便我们可以选择反映感兴趣变量之间关系的研究方法,即一对一、一对多、多对一或多对多。一对一(或因果关系)关系适用于传统的随机对照试验设计,而其他所有关系都需要系统设计来理解“原因和结果”。研究人员迫切需要重新评估他们的科学模型,并采用允许探索健康和疾病中多个明显的“原因和结果”的研究设计。临床示例突出了各种系统研究方法的应用,并展示了“原因和结果”如何解释临床结果的异质性。这种科学思维的转变将使我们能够找到必要的个性化或精确的临床干预措施,以解决临床结果变异性的根本原因,并有助于实现更大的健康公平。

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