Assessing the Potential Distribution of (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China Under Climate Change Using Species Distribution Models.

Climate change will lead to changes in biological ecosystems, which may affect the geographic distribution of and thus alter the extent and spatial pattern of its habitat. plays an important role in biodiversity and has significant ecological value. This study utilized an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the predicted distribution of in China for the current and future (2050s and 2070s). The results show that the MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy with AUC values higher than 0.97 for both training and testing. The most influential factors contributing to the distribution of were temperature seasonality (Bio4) and isothermality (Bio3), accounting for 38.8% and 28.2%, respectively. Furthermore, southern China remains a region of high suitability for species diversity. However, the Beijing climate center climate system model (BCC-CSM2-MR) predicts a decrease in suitable areas for , while the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC6) predicts an increase in medium and low suitable areas for . Additionally, future climate change will significantly alter its distribution pattern, with predicted to decrease its suitable area by 6.64%-28.01% under the BCC-CSM2-MR model and increase its suitable area by 6.14%-18.61% under the MIROC6 model. The results show that the MaxEnt model can improve the understanding of the geographical distribution of in the context of climate change and provide a scientific basis for the identification of potentially suitable habitats and the development of stable suitable areas for conservation.