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COVID-19 的全球动态传播力及其影响因素：来自 176 个国家的控制措施分析。

The global dynamic transmissibility of COVID-19 and its influencing factors: an analysis of control measures from 176 countries.

机构信息

West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2023 Feb 28;23(1):404. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-15174-0.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-15174-0
PMID:36855085
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9971674/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To summarise the dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmissibility; To analyse and quantify the effect of control measures on controlling the transmissibility of COVID-19; To predict and compare the effectiveness of different control measures.

METHODS

We used the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) to measure the transmissibility of COVID-19, the transmissibility of COVID-19 and control measures of 176 countries and regions from January 1, 2020 to May 14, 2022 were included in the study. The dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmissibility were summarised through descriptive research and a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was constructed to quantify the effect of control measures on controlling the transmissibility of COVID-19.

RESULTS

The results show that the spatial transmissibility of COVID-19 is high in Asia, Europe and Africa, the temporal transmissibility of COVID-19 increases with the epidemic of Beta and Omicron strains. Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model shows that the transmissibility of COVID-19 is negatively correlated with control measures. Restricting population mobility has the strongest effect, nucleic acid testing (NAT) has a strong effect, and vaccination has the weakest effect.

CONCLUSION

Strict control measures are essential for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak; Restricting population mobility and nucleic acid testing (NAT) have significant impacts on controlling the COVID-19 transmissibility, while vaccination has no significant impact. In light of these findings, future control measures may include the widespread use of new NAT technology and the promotion of booster immunization.

摘要

目的

总结 COVID-19 传染性的动态特征；分析和量化控制措施对控制 COVID-19 传染性的影响；预测和比较不同控制措施的效果。

方法

我们使用基本繁殖数（[公式：见文本]）来衡量 COVID-19 的传染性，研究纳入了 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 5 月 14 日 176 个国家和地区的 COVID-19 传染性和控制措施。通过描述性研究总结 COVID-19 传染性的动态特征，并构建动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）模型来量化控制措施对控制 COVID-19 传染性的影响。

结果

结果表明，COVID-19 的空间传染性在亚洲、欧洲和非洲较高，COVID-19 的时间传染性随着 Beta 和 Omicron 株的流行而增加。动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）模型表明，COVID-19 的传染性与控制措施呈负相关。限制人口流动的效果最强，核酸检测（NAT）效果较强，接种疫苗效果最弱。

结论

严格的控制措施对于控制 COVID-19 疫情至关重要；限制人口流动和核酸检测（NAT）对控制 COVID-19 传染性有显著影响，而接种疫苗没有显著影响。鉴于这些发现，未来的控制措施可能包括广泛使用新的 NAT 技术和推广加强免疫。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/25e0ba936083/12889_2023_15174_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/7640a6efbe86/12889_2023_15174_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/c0e75dd65c32/12889_2023_15174_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/e44e94f4289b/12889_2023_15174_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/25e0ba936083/12889_2023_15174_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/7640a6efbe86/12889_2023_15174_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/3933f2058bb2/12889_2023_15174_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/17491ce00d38/12889_2023_15174_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/4334cf3c03d9/12889_2023_15174_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/c0e75dd65c32/12889_2023_15174_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/e44e94f4289b/12889_2023_15174_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ea75/9972757/25e0ba936083/12889_2023_15174_Fig7_HTML.jpg

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