Can vertical environmental regulation become a sharp weapon in China's green development process? The moderating role of pollution dividend.

Optimizing the vertical environmental regulation (VER) effect of the central government and reducing the negative execution motivation of local governments have become the priority points to accelerate the green development of China. Based on the spatial Durbin model, this paper not only examines the influence of VER on green development efficiency (GDE), but also discusses the moderating effect of politically and economically motivated pollution dividend (PPD and EPD) on the relationship between them. The research results are as follows: (1) VER has a U-shaped effect on local GDE, the green governance effect of which began to appear when VER was higher than 1.561. VER has an inverted N-shaped effect on adjacent GDE. When the VER intensity lies in (0.138, 3.012), it has a positive spatial spillover effect. (2) PPD weakens the local green governance effect of VER, while EPD positively moderates it. Both of them have no significant moderating effect on it in neighboring areas. (3) Cross-regional cooperative governance moderates the short-term weakness and pollution transfer of VER, and generally facilitates the positive moderating effect of PPD and EPD. In China's two major economic belts, VER, PPD and EPD also have different performances. This study proves the important influence of local inter-governmental competition and promotion tournament on the central environmental regulation for the first time, which is of great significance for optimizing the top-level design of the central government and implementing the governance responsibility of local governments.