School of Business, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 6;20(5):4644. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20054644.
To achieve SDGs (sustainable development goals) and carbon neutrality goals, the Chinese government have been adopting the cap-and-trade regulation to curb carbon emissions. With this background, members in the supply chain should properly arrange their carbon reduction and marketing decisions to acquire optimal profits, especially when the favorable event may happen, which tends to elevate goodwill and the market demand. However, the event may not be of their benefit when the cap-and-trade regulation is conducted, since the increase in market demand is always associated with an increase in carbon emissions. Hence, questions arise about how the members adjust their carbon reduction and marketing decisions while envisioning the favorable event under the cap-and-trade regulation. Given the fact that the event occurs randomly during the planning period, we use the Markov random process to depict the event and use differential game methodology to dynamically study this issue. After solving and analyzing the model, we acquire the following conclusions: (1) the occurrence of the favorable event splits the whole planning period into two regimes and the supply chain members should make optimal decisions in each regime to maximize the overall profits. (2) The potential favorable event will elevate the marketing and carbon reduction efforts, as well as the goodwill level before the event. (3) If the unit emissions value is relatively low, the favorable event will help to decrease the emissions quantity. However, if the unit emissions value is relatively large, then the favorable event will help to increase the emissions quantity.
为实现可持续发展目标和碳中和目标，中国政府一直在采用总量控制与交易制度来遏制碳排放。在此背景下，供应链成员应合理安排减排和营销决策，以获取最佳利润，特别是在有利事件可能发生的情况下，这往往会提高良好意愿和市场需求。然而，当实行总量控制与交易制度时，该事件可能对成员不利，因为市场需求的增加总是伴随着碳排放的增加。因此，人们不禁要问，在考虑到总量控制与交易制度下有利事件的情况下，成员应如何调整减排和营销决策。鉴于该事件在规划期内是随机发生的，我们使用马尔可夫随机过程来描述该事件，并使用微分博弈方法来动态研究这个问题。在对模型进行求解和分析后，我们得出以下结论：（1）有利事件的发生将整个规划期分为两个阶段，供应链成员应在每个阶段做出最优决策，以最大化整体利润。（2）潜在的有利事件将提高营销和减排力度，以及事件发生前的良好意愿水平。（3）如果单位排放价值相对较低，有利事件将有助于减少排放量。然而，如果单位排放价值相对较高，那么有利事件将有助于增加排放量。
