Lersch Kim M, Hart Timothy C
School of Information, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue CIS 1022, Tampa, FL 34602, USA.
Criminology, University of Tampa, 401 W. Kennedy Blvd. SC Room 255, Tampa, FL 33606, USA.
J Crim Justice. 2023 May-Jun;86:102050. doi: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102050. Epub 2023 Mar 6.
On March 10, 2020, the Governor of the State of Michigan, USA, declared a state of emergency in response to COVID-19. Within days, schools were closed; in-person dining was restricted; and lockdowns and precautionary stay-at-home orders were issued. These restrictions dramatically impacted the mobility of offenders and victims through space and time. As routine activities were forced to change and crime generators were closed, did hot spots and risky locations for victimization change as well? The purpose of this research is to analyze potential shifts in high-risk areas for sexual assaults before, during, and after COVID-19 restrictions. Using data from the City of Detroit, Michigan, USA, optimized hot spot analysis and Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) were used to identify critical spatial factors for the occurrence of sexual assaults before, during, and after COVID-19 restrictions. The results suggested that hot spot areas for sexual assaults were more concentrated during the COVID timeframe, compared to the Pre-COVID timeframe. While blight complaints, public transit stops, points of sale for liquor, and the locations of drug arrests were consistent risk factors for sexual assaults before and after COVID restrictions, other factors, such as casinos and demolitions, were only influential in the COVID period.
2020年3月10日，美国密歇根州州长宣布因应对新冠疫情进入紧急状态。数日内，学校关闭；堂食受限；封锁令及预防性居家令发布。这些限制措施在空间和时间上极大地影响了犯罪者和受害者的流动性。随着日常活动被迫改变且犯罪滋生地关闭，性侵热点地区和高风险受害地点也发生变化了吗？本研究旨在分析新冠疫情限制措施实施之前、期间及之后性侵高风险地区的潜在变化。利用美国密歇根州底特律市的数据，运用优化后的热点分析和风险地形建模（RTM）来确定新冠疫情限制措施实施之前、期间及之后性侵发生的关键空间因素。结果表明，与新冠疫情之前的时间段相比，新冠疫情期间性侵热点地区更为集中。虽然破败投诉、公交站点、酒类销售点以及毒品逮捕地点在新冠疫情限制措施前后都是性侵的一致风险因素，但其他因素，如赌场和拆除地点，仅在新冠疫情期间有影响。
