Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2023 Mar 13;18(3):e0282893. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282893. eCollection 2023.
To make projections of cigarette consumption that incorporate state-specific trends in smoking behaviors, assess the potential for states to reach an ideal target, and identify State-specific targets for cigarette consumption.
We used 70 years (1950-2020) of annual state-specific estimates of per capita cigarette consumption (expressed as packs per capita or "ppc") from the Tax Burden on Tobacco reports (N = 3550). We summarized trends within each state by linear regression models and the variation in rates across states by the Gini coefficient. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to make state-specific forecasts of ppc from 2021 through 2035.
Since 1980, the average rate of decline in US per capita cigarette consumption was 3.3% per year, but rates of decline varied considerably across US states (SD = 1.1% per year). The Gini coefficient showed growing inequity in cigarette consumption across US states. After reaching its lowest level in 1984 (Gini = 0.09), the Gini coefficient began increasing by 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5%, 3.1%) per year from 1985 to 2020 and is projected to continue to increase by 48.1% (95% PI = 35.3%, 64.2%) from 2020 to 2035 (Gini = 0.35; 95% PI: 0.32, 0.39). Forecasts from ARIMA models suggested that only 12 states have a realistic chance (≥50%) of reaching very low levels of per capita cigarette consumption (≤13 ppc) by 2035, but that all US states have opportunity to make some progress.
While ideal targets may be out of reach for most US states within the next decade, every US state has the potential to lower its per capita cigarette consumption, and our identification of more realistic targets may provide a helpful incentive.
纳入各州吸烟行为趋势的具体情况对香烟消费进行预测，评估各州实现理想目标的潜力，并确定各州香烟消费的具体目标。
我们使用了 70 年来（1950-2020 年）来自税收负担烟草报告的各州人均香烟消费（以每包人均或“ppc”表示）的年度具体估计值（N=3550）。我们通过线性回归模型总结了各州内的趋势，并通过基尼系数总结了各州之间的比率差异。自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型用于对 2021 年至 2035 年的 ppc 进行各州特定的预测。
自 1980 年以来，美国人均香烟消费量的平均年下降率为 3.3%，但各州的下降率差异很大（SD=每年 1.1%）。基尼系数显示，美国各州的香烟消费不平等程度不断加大。自 1984 年达到最低水平（基尼系数=0.09）以来，基尼系数从 1985 年开始每年以 2.8%（95%置信区间：2.5%，3.1%）的速度增加，并预计从 2020 年到 2035 年将继续增加 48.1%（95%PI=35.3%，64.2%）（基尼系数=0.35；95%PI：0.32，0.39）。ARIMA 模型的预测表明，只有 12 个州在 2035 年之前有实现非常低水平人均香烟消费（≤13 包）的现实机会（≥50%），但所有美国州都有机会取得一些进展。
虽然在未来十年内，大多数美国州实现理想目标可能遥不可及，但每个州都有潜力降低其人均香烟消费，我们确定更现实的目标可能会提供有益的激励。
