Ramos Alexandre M, Russo Ana, DaCamara Carlos C, Nunes Silvia, Sousa Pedro, Soares P M M, Lima Miguel M, Hurduc Alexandra, Trigo Ricardo M
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Building 435, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Karlsruhe, Germany.
Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal.
iScience. 2023 Feb 4;26(3):106141. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106141. eCollection 2023 Mar 17.
Portugal is regularly affected by destructive wildfires that have severe social, economic, and ecological impacts. The total burnt area in 2017 (∼540,000 ha) marked the all-time record value since 1980 with a tragic toll of 114 fatalities that occurred in June and October events. The local insurance sector declared it was the costliest natural disaster in Portugal with payouts exceeding USD295 million. Here, the 2017 October event, responsible for more than 200,000 ha of burnt area and 50 fatalities is analyzed from a compound perspective. A prolonged drought led to preconditioned cumulative hydric stress of vegetation in October 2017. In addition, on 15 October 2017, two other major drivers played a critical role: 1) the passage of hurricane Ophelia off the Coast of Portugal, responsible for exceptional meteorological conditions and 2) the human agent, responsible for an extremely elevated number of negligent ignitions. This disastrous combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers led to the uncontrolled wildfires observed on 15 October.
葡萄牙经常受到破坏性野火的影响，这些野火具有严重的社会、经济和生态影响。2017年的总烧毁面积（约54万公顷）创下了自1980年以来的历史最高纪录，6月和10月的野火造成了114人死亡的悲惨 toll。当地保险行业宣称这是葡萄牙代价最高昂的自然灾害，赔付金额超过2.95亿美元。在此，从综合角度分析了2017年10月造成超过20万公顷烧毁面积和50人死亡的事件。长期干旱导致2017年10月植被出现累积性水分胁迫。此外，2017年10月15日，另外两个主要因素起到了关键作用：1）飓风奥菲莉亚从葡萄牙海岸经过，带来了异常的气象条件；2）人为因素，导致疏忽引发的火灾数量极高。自然和人为因素的这种灾难性组合导致了10月15日发生的野火失控。
