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应对复合气候风险管理实施决策过程中的路径依赖问题。

Addressing path dependencies in decision-making processes for operationalizing compound climate-risk management.

作者信息

Thaler Thomas, Hanger-Kopp Susanne, Schinko Thomas, Nordbeck Ralf

机构信息

Population and Just Societies Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Institute of Landscape Planning, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Austria.

出版信息

iScience. 2023 Jun 8;26(7):107073. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.107073. eCollection 2023 Jul 21.

Abstract

The need for a compound risk governance system and management practice is argued in this paper. We find that, historically, risk management strategies have been developed for single hazards and are often subject to path dependency. It is thus difficult to adapt them to a situation that has compound risks. The lack of attention to compound risks in current risk management practices often leads to potential side effects-positive or negative-on other risks and can also result in related management strategies being overlooked. This can ultimately cause barriers to larger transformational adaptation efforts and lead to the intensification of existing societal inequalities or to the creation of new ones. To alert policy- and decision-makers to the need to move toward compound-risk management strategies, we argue that risk management must explicitly highlight various elements of path dependencies, the positive and negative side effects of single-hazard risk management, the appearance of new social inequalities, and the intensification of existing ones.

摘要

本文论证了建立复合风险治理体系和管理实践的必要性。我们发现,从历史上看,风险管理策略是针对单一灾害制定的,并且往往受到路径依赖的影响。因此,很难将它们应用于存在复合风险的情况。当前风险管理实践中对复合风险缺乏关注,往往会对其他风险产生潜在的副作用——无论是积极的还是消极的——还可能导致相关管理策略被忽视。这最终可能会给更大规模的转型适应努力造成障碍,并导致现有社会不平等加剧或产生新的不平等。为了提醒政策制定者和决策者有必要转向复合风险管理策略,我们认为风险管理必须明确突出路径依赖的各种要素、单一灾害风险管理的正负副作用、新的社会不平等的出现以及现有不平等的加剧。

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