Yu C L, Liu X W, Mu X D, Pan X J
Department of Infectious Disease, Yantai Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shandong Province, Yantai 264003, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2023 Mar 6;57(3):411-415. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20220614-00607.
From 2015 to 2019, the annual average incidence rate of scarlet fever was 7.80/100 000 in Yantai City, which showed an increasing trend since 2017 (χ=233.59, <0.001). The peak period of this disease was from April to July and November to January of the next year. The ratio of male to female was 1.49∶1, with a higher prevalence among cases aged 3 to 9 years (2 357/2 552, 92.36%). Children in kindergartens, primary and middle school students, and scattered children were the high risk population, with the incidence rate of 159.86/100 000, 25.57/100 000 and 26.77/100 000, respectively. The global spatial auto-correlation analysis showed that the global Moran's index of the reported incidence rate of scarlet fever in Yantai from 2015 to 2019 was 0.28, 0.29, 0.44, 0.48, and 0.22, respectively (all values0.05), suggesting that the incidence rate of scarlet fever in Yantai from 2015 to 2019 was spatial clustering. The local spatial auto-correlation analysis showed that the "high-high" clustering areas were mainly located in Laizhou City, Zhifu District, Haiyang City, Fushan District and Kaifa District, while the "low-high" clustering areas were mainly located in Haiyang City and Fushan District.
2015年至2019年，烟台市猩红热年平均发病率为7.80/10万，自2017年以来呈上升趋势（χ=233.59，<0.001）。该病的高峰期为4月至7月以及次年11月至1月。男女比例为1.49∶1，3至9岁病例的患病率较高（2357/2552，92.36%）。幼儿园儿童、中小学生和散居儿童为高危人群，发病率分别为159.86/10万、25.57/10万和26.77/10万。全局空间自相关分析显示，2015年至2019年烟台市猩红热报告发病率的全局Moran's指数分别为0.28、0.29、0.44、0.48和0.22（均P<0.05），表明2015年至2019年烟台市猩红热发病率存在空间聚集性。局部空间自相关分析显示，“高高”聚集区主要位于莱州市、芝罘区、海阳市、福山区和开发区，而“低高”聚集区主要位于海阳市和福山区。
