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2010 年至 2018 年中国乙型和丙型肝炎的时空异质性及影响因素：贝叶斯时空层次模型。

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and impact factors of hepatitis B and C in China from 2010 to 2018: Bayesian space-time hierarchy model.

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University., Nanjing, China.

Department of infectious diseases prevention, Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China.

出版信息

Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2023 Feb 27;13:1115087. doi: 10.3389/fcimb.2023.1115087. eCollection 2023.

DOI:10.3389/fcimb.2023.1115087
PMID:36923590
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10008934/
Abstract

INTRODUCTION

Viral hepatitis is a global public health problem, and China still faces great challenges to achieve the WHO goal of eliminating hepatitis.

METHODS

This study focused on hepatitis B and C, aiming to explore the long-term spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hepatitis B and C incidence in China from 2010 to 2018 and quantify the impact of socioeconomic factors on their risk through Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical model.

RESULTS

The results showed that the risk of hepatitis B and C had significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The risk of hepatitis B showed a slow downward trend, and the high-risk provinces were mainly distributed in the southeast and northwest regions, while the risk of hepatitis C had a clear growth trend, and the high-risk provinces were mainly distributed in the northern region. In addition, for hepatitis B, illiteracy and hepatitis C prevalence were the main contributing factors, while GDP per capita, illiteracy rate and hepatitis B prevalence were the main contributing factors to hepatitis C.

DISUSSION

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of hepatitis B and C and their contributing factors, which can serve as a basis for monitoring efforts. Meanwhile, the data provided by this study will contribute to the effective allocation of resources to eliminate viral hepatitis and the design of interventions at the provincial level.

摘要

引言

病毒性肝炎是一个全球性的公共卫生问题，中国在实现世界卫生组织消除肝炎目标方面仍面临巨大挑战。

方法

本研究聚焦于乙型肝炎和丙型肝炎，旨在从 2010 年到 2018 年，探索中国乙型肝炎和丙型肝炎发病率的长期时空异质性，并通过贝叶斯时空层次模型量化社会经济因素对其风险的影响。

结果

结果表明，乙型肝炎和丙型肝炎的风险具有显著的时空异质性。乙型肝炎的风险呈缓慢下降趋势，高风险省份主要分布在东南和西北地区，而丙型肝炎的风险呈明显增长趋势，高风险省份主要分布在北方地区。此外，对于乙型肝炎，文盲率和丙型肝炎流行率是主要的促成因素，而人均 GDP、文盲率和乙型肝炎流行率是丙型肝炎的主要促成因素。

讨论

本研究分析了乙型肝炎和丙型肝炎的时空异质性及其促成因素，可为监测工作提供依据。同时，本研究提供的数据将有助于有效分配资源以消除病毒性肝炎，并在省级层面设计干预措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/4699ef7fc226/fcimb-13-1115087-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/4a446ffb0dff/fcimb-13-1115087-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/9caa60401851/fcimb-13-1115087-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/f306865ab7a3/fcimb-13-1115087-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/597332f45099/fcimb-13-1115087-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/4699ef7fc226/fcimb-13-1115087-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/4a446ffb0dff/fcimb-13-1115087-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/9caa60401851/fcimb-13-1115087-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/f306865ab7a3/fcimb-13-1115087-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/597332f45099/fcimb-13-1115087-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8537/10008934/4699ef7fc226/fcimb-13-1115087-g005.jpg

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