Semenza Jan C, Trinanes Joaquin, Lohr Wolfgang, Sudre Bertrand, Löfdahl Margareta, Martinez-Urtaza Jaime, Nichols Gordon L, Rocklöv Joacim
Scientific Assessment Section, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , Stockholm, Sweden.
Instituto de Investigaciones Tecnoloxicas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela , Santiago, Spain.
Environ Health Perspect. 2017 Oct 10;125(10):107004. doi: 10.1289/EHP2198.
Some spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST).
Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for infections under climate change scenarios.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
The ECDC Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades.
This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.
某些物种具有致病性，在盐度低至中等的海水中普遍存在，并随着海面温度（SST）升高而大量繁殖。
我们的目标是监测和预测气候变化情景下海洋环境对感染的适宜性。
欧洲疾病预防控制中心（ECDC）开发了一个平台（ECDC地图查看器），利用遥感获取的海表温度和盐度来监测沿海水域对该物种的环境适宜性。对瑞典的病例进行了病例交叉研究，通过条件逻辑回归确定海表温度与感染之间的关系。针对代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5和RCP 8.5制定了感染的气候变化预测。
ECDC地图查看器在2014年7月检测到波罗的海存在该物种适宜的环境区域，与此同时瑞典的病例数激增并有1人死亡。在16°C阈值下，感染的估计暴露-反应关系显示，滞后2周时相对风险（RR）=1.14（95%CI：1.02，1.27；p=0.024）；超过该海表温度阈值后，估计风险持续增加。RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下的海表温度气候变化预测表明，在夏季月份呈明显上升趋势，且未来几十年这些感染的相对风险会增加。
由于气候变化，21世纪感染风险增加，该平台可作为预警系统。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198 。
