Prabheesh K P, Sasongko Aryo, Indawan Fiskara
Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, India.
Bank Indonesia, Indonesia.
Econ Anal Policy. 2023 Jun;78:243-255. doi: 10.1016/j.eap.2023.02.007. Epub 2023 Mar 5.
This paper examines the responses of credit and business cycle to various policy actions of the Government of Indonesia during the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, the paper addresses two key questions (1) How do the credit and business cycle behave during the COVID-19 crisis in Indonesia? (2) Do the central bank and government policy responses effectively stabilize the credit and business cycle? Using the concordance Index and DCC-GARCH methodology, we found that the COVID-19 crisis increased Indonesia's credit and business cycle co-movements. Similarly, using the mixed data sampling regression technique, our findings suggest fiscal policy measures and government support help the business cycle revival during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the monetary policy transmission is weak during the pandemic.
本文考察了印度尼西亚政府在新冠疫情危机期间采取的各种政策行动对信贷和商业周期的影响。具体而言，本文探讨两个关键问题：（1）在印度尼西亚的新冠疫情危机期间，信贷和商业周期表现如何？（2）央行和政府的政策应对措施是否有效地稳定了信贷和商业周期？通过使用一致性指数和动态条件相关广义自回归条件异方差（DCC-GARCH）方法，我们发现新冠疫情危机加剧了印度尼西亚信贷与商业周期的共同波动。同样，运用混合数据抽样回归技术，我们的研究结果表明，财政政策措施和政府支持有助于在新冠疫情大流行期间推动商业周期复苏。然而，在疫情期间货币政策传导乏力。
