Wang Yuqu, Wang Zehong, Wang Jieyu, Li Ming, Wang Shaojian, He Xiong, Zhou Chunshan
School of Geography, South China Normal University, Guangzhou, China.
School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Cities. 2022 Nov;130:103907. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.103907. Epub 2022 Aug 8.
We investigated the factors influencing the progression of the pandemic from a global perspective by using the Geodetector and Correlation methods and explored the pandemic response policies and effects in different countries. The results yielded three notable findings. First, empirical results show the COVID-19 pandemic is influenced by various factors, including demographic and economic parameters, international travelers, urbanization ratio, urban population, etc. Among them, the correlation between urban population and confirmed cases is strongest. Cities become the key factor affecting the COVID-19 pandemic, with high urbanization levels and population mobility increases the risk of large-scale outbreaks. Second, among control measures, School-closures, International-travel-restrictions, and Public-gathering-restriction have the best control effect on the epidemic. In addition, the combination of different types of control measures is more effective in controlling the outbreak, especially for Public-gathering-restrictions ∩ School-closures, International-travel-restrictions ∩ Workplace-closures, Public-transport-restrictions ∩ International-travel-restrictions. Third, implementing appropriate control measures in the first month of an outbreak played a critical role in future pandemic trends. Since there are few local cases in this period and the control measures have an obvious effect.
我们运用地理探测器和相关性方法从全球视角研究了影响疫情发展的因素,并探讨了不同国家的疫情应对政策及效果。结果有三个显著发现。第一,实证结果表明新冠疫情受到多种因素影响,包括人口和经济参数、国际旅行者、城市化率、城市人口等。其中,城市人口与确诊病例之间的相关性最强。城市成为影响新冠疫情的关键因素,城市化水平高且人口流动性大增加了大规模爆发的风险。第二,在防控措施中,学校关闭、国际旅行限制和公共集会限制对疫情的防控效果最佳。此外,不同类型防控措施的组合在控制疫情爆发方面更有效,尤其是公共集会限制∩学校关闭、国际旅行限制∩工作场所关闭、公共交通限制∩国际旅行限制。第三,在疫情爆发的第一个月实施适当的防控措施对未来疫情趋势起着关键作用。因为在此期间本地病例很少,且防控措施效果明显。