Kleinman J C
Am J Public Health. 1986 Jun;76(6):681-8. doi: 10.2105/ajph.76.6.681.
This paper presents an analysis of state trends in infant mortality rates (IMRs) for 1968-83. In order to take into account the large random error component associated with state IMRs, weighted least squares estimates are used to fit log-linear models to these trends. Using simulated data, these estimates are shown to be nearly unbiased and to provide valid significance tests. However, the power to detect changes in trend is rather limited, especially in small states. Using these methods, separate analyses of White IMRs in 49 states and non-White IMRs in 30 states were completed. Nine states are identified which had infant mortality trends less favorable than the national experience and 1981-83 rates more than 5 per cent above the national average.
本文对1968 - 1983年各州婴儿死亡率(IMR)的趋势进行了分析。为了考虑与各州婴儿死亡率相关的较大随机误差成分,采用加权最小二乘法估计值来对这些趋势拟合对数线性模型。通过模拟数据表明,这些估计值几乎无偏,并能提供有效的显著性检验。然而,检测趋势变化的能力相当有限,尤其是在小州。运用这些方法,分别完成了对49个州白人婴儿死亡率和30个州非白人婴儿死亡率的分析。确定了九个州,其婴儿死亡率趋势比全国情况更不利,且1981 - 1983年的死亡率比全国平均水平高出5%以上。