Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany.
Lancet Planet Health. 2023 May;7(5):e358-e369. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00053-0.
BACKGROUND: Air pollution is the sixth highest risk factor for attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in North Africa and the Middle East, but the relative importance of different subtypes of air pollution and any potential differences in their health effects by population demographics or country-level socioeconomic factors have not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of high ambient particulate matter less than 2·5 μm in size (PM) and ambient ozone air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries in the North Africa and the Middle East super-region from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. METHODS: The study data were derived from GBD 2019, examining data from 1999 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, the types of air pollution investigated included PM pollution and ambient ozone pollution. PM pollution itself was categorised as household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient PM pollution. The burden attributable to each risk factor, directly or indirectly, was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and DALYs. The summary exposure value (SEV) as the relative risk-weighted prevalence of exposure was extracted to compare the distribution of excess risk times the exposure level in a population where everyone is at maximum risk and ranges from zero (no excess risk exists in a population) to 100 (highest risk). The effect of air pollution on life expectancy was estimated via a cause-deleted life table analysis. FINDINGS: The age-standardised DALYs rate attributable to air pollution declined by 44·5%, from 4884·2 (95% uncertainty interval 4381·5-5555·4) to 2710·4 (2317·3-3125·6) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2019. Afghanistan (6992·3, 5627·7-8482·7), Yemen (4212·4, 3241·3-5418·1), and Egypt (4034·8, 3027·7-5138·6) had the highest age-standardised DALYs rates attributable to air pollution in 2019 per 100 000, whereas Türkiye (1329·2, 1033·7-1654·7), Jordan (1447·3, 1154·2-1758·5), and Iran (1603·0, 1404·7-1813·8) had the lowest rates. During the study period, the age-standardised SEV of air pollution (PM and ambient ozone in total) decreased by 10·9% (5·8-17·7%) in the super-region, whereas the SEV of ambient ozone pollution alone increased by 7·7% (0·7-14·3%). Among the components of PM pollution, the SEV of ambient PM pollution increased by 40·1% (25·2-63·7%); however, the SEV of household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 70·6% (64·1-77·0%). Among the investigated types of air pollution, 98·9% of the DALYs from air pollution in the super-region were attributable to PM pollution. If air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher. INTERPRETATION: The burden attributable to air pollution substantially decreased in the study period across the super-region as a whole. Most of the burden from air pollution is attributed to PM pollution, the exposure to which has substantially increased in the past three decades. Interventions and policies that reduce population exposure to PM pollution could potentially increase the average life expectancy in the super-region. This finding calls for concerted efforts from governments and public health authorities in the super-region to tackle air pollution as an important threat to population health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
背景:空气污染是北非和中东地区导致可归因伤残调整生命年(DALY)的第六大最高风险因素,但不同亚型空气污染的相对重要性以及其对人口统计学特征或国家社会经济因素的健康影响方面的任何潜在差异尚未得到充分探讨。本研究的目的是利用全球疾病、伤害和危险因素研究(GBD)估计,调查 21 个北非和中东超级区域国家 1990 年至 2019 年期间,大气细颗粒物(PM)和大气臭氧空气污染对疾病负担、死亡率和预期寿命的影响。
方法:研究数据来源于 GBD 2019,研究了 1999 年至 2019 年期间北非和中东的数据。本研究中,所研究的空气污染类型包括 PM 污染和大气臭氧污染。PM 污染本身分为家用固体燃料空气污染和大气 PM 污染。将归因于每个风险因素的直接或间接负担纳入人群归因分数中,以估计总归因死亡人数和 DALY。从相对风险加权的暴露流行率中提取总结暴露值(SEV),以比较人群中每个个体都处于最大风险时暴露水平的超额风险分布,范围从 0(人群中不存在超额风险)到 100(最高风险)。通过死因剔除生命表分析来估计空气污染对预期寿命的影响。
结果:1990 年至 2019 年,归因于空气污染的年龄标准化 DALY 率下降了 44.5%,从 4884.2(95%不确定区间 4381.5-5555.4)降至 2710.4(2317.3-3125.6)/每 10 万人。2019 年,每 10 万人归因于空气污染的年龄标准化 DALY 率最高的国家是阿富汗(6992.3,5627.7-8482.7)、也门(4212.4,3241.3-5418.1)和埃及(4034.8,3027.7-5138.6),而土耳其(1329.2,1033.7-1654.7)、约旦(1447.3,1154.2-1758.5)和伊朗(1603.0,1404.7-1813.8)的这一比率最低。在研究期间,北非和中东超级区域的空气污染(PM 和大气臭氧总和)的年龄标准化 SEV 下降了 10.9%(5.8-17.7%),而大气臭氧污染的 SEV 单独上升了 7.7%(0.7-14.3%)。在 PM 污染的组成部分中,大气 PM 污染的 SEV 增加了 40.1%(25.2-63.7%);然而,家用固体燃料空气污染的 SEV 下降了 70.6%(64.1-77.0%)。在所调查的空气污染类型中,超级区域 98.9%的空气污染 DALY 归因于 PM 污染。如果将空气污染降低到 2019 年的理论最低风险暴露水平,那么平均预期寿命将增加 1.6 年。
解释:在整个超级区域,研究期间归因于空气污染的负担大大减少。空气污染的大部分负担归因于 PM 污染,在过去三十年中,PM 污染的暴露量大幅增加。减少人口对 PM 污染的暴露的干预措施和政策可能会潜在地提高超级区域的平均预期寿命。这一发现呼吁超级区域的政府和公共卫生当局共同努力,将空气污染作为对人口健康的一个重要威胁来加以应对。
资金:比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会。
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