Petkov Ivalin, Lerbinger Alicia, Mavromatidis Georgios, Knoeri Christof, Hoffmann Volker H
Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
OPTIML AG, 8003 Zurich, Switzerland.
iScience. 2023 Apr 8;26(5):106619. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106619. eCollection 2023 May 19.
Retrofitting existing buildings is crucial for achieving Net Zero emissions. Institutional real estate owners play a key role because of their significant ownership, especially of large buildings. We utilize an interdisciplinary approach to evaluate cost-optimal decarbonization conditions for three Swiss real estate portfolios owned by a global institutional investor. We leverage a bottom-up optimization framework for building asset retrofitting, scaled to the portfolio-level, to study the effect of policy scenarios and implementations. Results indicate that achieving Net Zero necessitates significant investments, largely through thermal energy efficiency measures and low-CO energy systems, as early as possible to avoid locked-in emissions. Owners will be challenged to smooth long-term capital investments, pointing to a potential liquidity crisis. Consequently, hard-to-decarbonize assets are unable to reach regulatory benchmarks largely because of lingering embodied emissions. To lower transition risk, we recommend that policymakers move toward average CO benchmarks at the real estate portfolio-level, emulating automotive fleets.
改造现有建筑对于实现净零排放至关重要。机构房地产所有者因其大量的所有权，尤其是对大型建筑的所有权，而发挥着关键作用。我们采用跨学科方法，评估一家全球机构投资者拥有的三个瑞士房地产投资组合的成本最优脱碳条件。我们利用一个自下而上的建筑资产改造优化框架，并将其扩展到投资组合层面，以研究政策情景和实施的效果。结果表明，实现净零排放需要大量投资，主要通过热能效率措施和低碳能源系统，且要尽早进行以避免锁定排放。业主将面临如何平滑长期资本投资的挑战，这可能会引发流动性危机。因此，难以脱碳的资产很大程度上因残留的内含碳排放量而无法达到监管基准。为降低转型风险，我们建议政策制定者朝着房地产投资组合层面的平均碳排放基准迈进，效仿汽车车队。
