Association of Community Vulnerability and State Gun Laws With Firearm Deaths in Children and Adolescents Aged 10 to 19 Years.

IMPORTANCE

Firearm-related injuries are the leading cause of death among children and adolescents in the US. For youths aged 10 to 19 years, 64% of firearm-related deaths are due to assault. Understanding the association between the rate of death due to assault-related firearm injury and both community-level vulnerability and state-level gun laws may inform prevention efforts and public health policy.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the rate of death due to assault-related firearm injury stratified by community-level social vulnerability and state-level gun laws in a national cohort of youths aged 10 to 19 years.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This national cross-sectional study used the Gun Violence Archive to identify all assault-related firearm deaths among youths aged 10 to 19 years occurring in the US between January 1, 2020, and June 30, 2022.

EXPOSURE

Census tract-level social vulnerability (measured by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention social vulnerability index [SVI]; categorized in quartiles as low [<25th percentile], moderate [25th-50th percentile], high [51st-75th percentile], or very high [>75th percentile]) and state-level gun laws (measured by the Giffords Law Center gun law scorecard rating; categorized as restrictive, moderate, or permissive).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Youth death rate (per 100 000 person-years) due to assault-related firearm injury.

RESULTS

Among 5813 youths aged 10 to 19 years who died of an assault-related firearm injury over the 2.5-year study period, the mean (SD) age was 17.1 (1.9) years, and 4979 (85.7%) were male. The death rate per 100 000 person-years in the low SVI cohort was 1.2 compared with 2.5 in the moderate SVI cohort, 5.2 in the high SVI cohort, and 13.3 in the very high SVI cohort. The mortality rate ratio of the very high SVI cohort compared with the low SVI cohort was 11.43 (95% CI, 10.17-12.88). When further stratifying deaths by the Giffords Law Center state-level gun law scorecard rating, the stepwise increase in death rate (per 100 000 person-years) with increasing SVI persisted, regardless of whether the Census tract was in a state with restrictive gun laws (0.83 in the low SVI cohort vs 10.11 in the very high SVI cohort), moderate gun laws (0.81 in the low SVI cohort vs 13.18 in the very high SVI cohort), or permissive gun laws (1.68 in the low SVI cohort vs 16.03 in the very high SVI cohort). The death rate per 100 000 person-years was higher for each SVI category in states with permissive compared with restrictive gun laws (eg, moderate SVI: 3.37 vs 1.71; high SVI: 6.33 vs 3.78).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, socially vulnerable communities in the US experienced a disproportionate number of assault-related firearm deaths among youths. Although stricter gun laws were associated with lower death rates in all communities, these gun laws did not equalize the consequences on a relative scale, and disadvantaged communities remained disproportionately impacted. While legislation is necessary, it may not be sufficient to solve the problem of assault-related firearm deaths among children and adolescents.