Bahmani Homa, Ao Yibin, Li Mingyang, Yang Dujuan, Wang Dongpo
College of Environment and Civil Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China.
College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China.
J Transp Geogr. 2023 Jun;110:103622. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103622. Epub 2023 Jun 1.
Although there is a growing body of literature on the COVID-19 pandemic and the implemented strategies that have imposed additional risks in tackling emergencies by increasing socio-economic vulnerabilities, studies on human evacuation behavior during lockdowns are lacking. This paper contributes to evacuation and emergency research by examining seismic evacuation decision-making by surveying the areas affected by the Luding earthquake on 5 September 2022, when most parts of Sichuan province were experiencing strict pandemic restrictions. Using these data and per the emergency evacuation decision-making mechanism, we developed six hierarchical series of logistic regression models. Our major results suggest that 1) Socio-demographic parameters have shown different correlations with the study's dependent variables in each stage of those hierarchical models, 2) Respondents at home at the time of the earthquake were more likely to identify the earthquake risk than those who stayed outdoors; the former group showed less willingness to evacuate, 3) Rural residents have perceived higher earthquake risks than urban residents, and 4) Loss of job, change in income due to COVID-19 restrictions, and difficulty accessing daily supplies during the lockdown affected the residents' risk assessment and evacuation decision-making negatively. Insights into these aspects are expected to contribute to a better understanding of evacuation behavior during double disasters by modifying emergency response regulations and providing the residents with information about emergencies during pandemic restrictions.
尽管关于新冠疫情以及通过增加社会经济脆弱性给应对紧急情况带来额外风险的已实施策略的文献越来越多,但关于封锁期间人员疏散行为的研究却很缺乏。本文通过对2022年9月5日泸定地震受灾地区进行调查,研究地震疏散决策,为疏散和应急研究做出了贡献,当时四川省大部分地区正实施严格的疫情管控措施。利用这些数据并根据应急疏散决策机制,我们开发了六个层次系列的逻辑回归模型。我们的主要研究结果表明:1)社会人口统计学参数在这些层次模型的每个阶段与研究的因变量显示出不同的相关性;2)地震发生时在家的受访者比那些待在户外的人更有可能识别地震风险;前一组显示出较低的疏散意愿;3)农村居民比城市居民感知到更高的地震风险;4)失业、因新冠疫情管控导致的收入变化以及封锁期间获取日常用品困难对居民的风险评估和疏散决策产生了负面影响。预计对这些方面的深入了解将有助于通过修改应急响应规定以及在疫情管控期间向居民提供有关紧急情况的信息,更好地理解双重灾害期间的疏散行为。