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多尺度共识的地理设计:洪水适应路径规划的经验教训

Geodesign for multi-scalar consensus: Lessons from flood adaptation pathways planning.

作者信息

Hui Rising Hope, Abimbola Olorode, Walter Segovia, Galen Newman

机构信息

Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA.

出版信息

Landsc Res Rec. 2023;11:72-84.

PMID:37324360
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10270704/
Abstract

Geodesign is an iterative process for cycling through representation, evaluation, change, impact, and decision models to forge consensus typically across disciplinary more so than geographic boundaries. Multi-scalar integration of blue, green, and human infrastructure is necessary for adapting communities to large-scale extreme flooding scenarios timely and effectively. This project explored the feasibility of using multi-scalar geodesign to converge geographic perspectives from smaller-scale units of analysis (networks of water resources regions (WRRs)) into a higher-order consensus at the continental level to facilitate adaptation pathways planning for instantaneous flooding events, including flash flooding from dam breaks, tidal surges from polar reversal, and rapid sea level rise due to extreme solar events. Participants were initially organized based on their disciplines and geographical familiarity with a particular network of WRRs. Each team helped inventory priority intervention types and sites for blue, green, and human infrastructure components within its respective network of WRRs. Participants were then reorganized into continental teams with an equal number of representatives from each of the four network teams to integrate regional inventories of priority intervention sites and types into continental framework alternatives. Interrater reliability test indicated high reliability (ICC>0.9) in the response patterns of two independent raters (non-participants) that compared convergeability of each pair of alternatives into one: The pairs with the alternative generated without all representatives led to less converge-ability than those pairs containing alternatives generated with all representatives. The finding suggests the importance of integrated teaming in generating consensus-based, multi-scalar adaptation plans for disruptive flooding scenarios more rapidly.

摘要

地理设计是一个迭代过程,通过循环使用表示、评估、变化、影响和决策模型,以跨越学科而非地理边界达成共识。蓝色、绿色和人类基础设施的多尺度整合对于社区及时有效地适应大规模极端洪水情景至关重要。本项目探讨了使用多尺度地理设计将较小尺度分析单元(水资源区域(WRR)网络)的地理视角汇聚到大陆层面的更高层次共识的可行性,以促进针对瞬时洪水事件的适应路径规划,包括大坝决堤引发的山洪暴发、极地逆转引发的潮汐涌浪以及极端太阳事件导致的海平面快速上升。参与者最初是根据他们的学科以及对特定WRR网络的地理熟悉程度进行组织的。每个团队都协助梳理其各自WRR网络内蓝色、绿色和人类基础设施组件的优先干预类型和地点。然后,参与者重新组建为大陆团队,每个网络团队派出同等数量的代表,将优先干预地点和类型的区域清单整合到大陆框架备选方案中。评分者间信度测试表明,两名独立评分者(非参与者)在比较每对备选方案的收敛性时,反应模式具有高信度(ICC>0.9):没有所有代表参与生成的备选方案对的收敛性低于包含所有代表参与生成的备选方案对。这一发现表明,综合团队合作对于更快地生成基于共识的、针对破坏性洪水情景的多尺度适应计划具有重要意义。

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本文引用的文献

1
Subterranean clues to the future of our planetary magnetic shield.地球行星磁屏蔽未来的地下线索。
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