Rauscher Emily, Burns Ailish
Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
Sociol Perspect. 2021 Oct;64(5):831-856. doi: 10.1177/07311214211005486. Epub 2021 Apr 9.
Mixed evidence on the relationship between school closure and COVID-19 prevalence could reflect focus on large-scale levels of geography, limited ability to address endogeneity, and demographic variation. Using county-level Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 data through June 15, 2020, two matching strategies address potential heterogeneity: nearest geographic neighbor and propensity scores. Within nearest neighboring pairs in different states with different school closure timing, each additional day from a county's first case until state-ordered school closure is related to 1.5 to 2.4 percent higher cumulative COVID-19 deaths per capita (1,227-1,972 deaths for a county with median population and deaths/capita). Results are consistent using propensity score matching, COVID-19 data from two alternative sources, and additional sensitivity analyses. School closure is more strongly related to COVID-19 deaths in counties with a high concentration of Black or poor residents, suggesting schools play an unequal role in transmission and earlier school closure is related to fewer lives lost in disadvantaged counties.
关于学校关闭与新冠病毒流行率之间关系的证据不一，这可能反映出研究集中在大规模地理层面、解决内生性的能力有限以及人口结构差异。利用疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）截至2020年6月15日的县级新冠病毒数据，两种匹配策略可解决潜在的异质性问题：最近地理邻域匹配和倾向得分匹配。在不同州不同学校关闭时间的最近邻域配对中，从一个县出现首例病例到州下令学校关闭的每增加一天，人均新冠病毒累积死亡人数就会高出1.5%至2.4%（对于人口和人均死亡数中位数的县，死亡人数为1227 - 1972人）。使用倾向得分匹配、来自两个替代来源的新冠病毒数据以及额外的敏感性分析，结果是一致的。在黑人或贫困居民高度集中的县，学校关闭与新冠病毒死亡的关联更强，这表明学校在病毒传播中发挥的作用不平等，且更早关闭学校与弱势县减少的死亡人数相关。
