Eide T J
Int J Cancer. 1986 Aug 15;38(2):173-6. doi: 10.1002/ijc.2910380205.
Assuming that all colorectal cancers develop from preexisting adenomas, the annual conversion rate, defined as the number of cancers occurring each year as a percentage of all adenoma-bearing individuals, was determined. The number of adenoma-bearing individuals in the living population of northern Norway was estimated in each cohort for the period 1974-76 by determining the prevalence of colorectal adenomas in an autopsy population of 271 consecutive cases, representative of the population of the area with regard to underlying causes of death. During the 10-year period 1974-1983 a total of 656 colorectal cancers were recorded among an estimated number of 26,419 adenoma-bearing individuals aged over 35 years. The annual conversion rate was found to be 0.25%, indicating that an average adenoma-bearing individual is only at a moderate risk of colorectal cancer. The annual conversion rates for individuals having large adenomas, or adenomas with villous structures, or severe dysplasia were roughly estimated to be 3%, 17% and 37% respectively, assuming that colorectal cancer develops from one of these sub-groups of adenomas only.
假设所有结直肠癌均由先前存在的腺瘤发展而来，我们确定了年转化率，即每年发生的癌症数量占所有患有腺瘤个体的百分比。通过确定连续271例尸检人群中结直肠腺瘤的患病率，对1974 - 1976年期间挪威北部现有人口中患有腺瘤的个体数量进行了估计，该尸检人群在潜在死因方面代表了该地区的人群。在1974 - 1983年的10年期间，在估计的26419名35岁以上患有腺瘤的个体中，共记录了656例结直肠癌。发现年转化率为0.25%，这表明平均每个患有腺瘤的个体患结直肠癌的风险仅为中等。假设结直肠癌仅从这些腺瘤亚组中的一组发展而来，那么患有大腺瘤、具有绒毛结构的腺瘤或重度发育异常的个体的年转化率大致估计分别为3%、17%和37%。
