Scientia Professor Kaarin J. Anstey, School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Kensington NSW 2052, Australia, Telephone no: +61 9399 1061, Email:
J Prev Alzheimers Dis. 2023;10(3):478-487. doi: 10.14283/jpad.2023.38.
Lack of external validation of dementia risk tools is a major limitation for generalizability and translatability of prediction scores in clinical practice and research.
We aimed to validate a new dementia prediction risk tool called CogDrisk and a version, CogDrisk-AD for predicting Alzheimer's disease (AD) using cohort studies.
DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Four cohort studies were identified that included majority of the dementia risk factors from the CogDrisk tool. Participants who were free of dementia at baseline were included. The predictors were component variables in the CogDrisk tool that include self-reported demographics, medical risk factors and lifestyle habits. Risk scores for Any Dementia and AD were computed and Area Under the Curve (AUC) was assessed. To examine modifiable risk factors for dementia, the CogDrisk tool was tested by excluding age and sex estimates from the model.
The performance of the tool varied between studies. The overall AUC and 95% CI for predicting dementia was 0.77 (0.57, 0.97) for the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, 0.76 (0.70, 0.83) for the Health and Retirement Study - Aging, Demographics and Memory Study, 0.70 (0.67,0.72) for the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study, and 0.66 (0.62,0.70) for the Rush Memory and Aging Project.
The CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD performed well in the four studies. Overall, this tool can be used to assess individualized risk factors of dementia and AD in various population settings.
痴呆风险工具缺乏外部验证是其在临床实践和研究中的推广和可翻译性的主要限制。
我们旨在使用队列研究验证一种新的痴呆预测风险工具，称为 CogDrisk，以及用于预测阿尔茨海默病（AD）的版本 CogDrisk-AD。
设计、地点、参与者和测量：确定了四项队列研究，这些研究包含了 CogDrisk 工具中的大多数痴呆风险因素。基线时无痴呆的参与者被纳入研究。预测因子是 CogDrisk 工具中的组成变量，包括自我报告的人口统计学、医疗风险因素和生活方式习惯。计算了任何痴呆和 AD 的风险评分，并评估了曲线下面积（AUC）。为了研究可改变的痴呆风险因素，通过从模型中排除年龄和性别估计，测试了 CogDrisk 工具。
该工具在不同的研究中的表现有所不同。总体而言，瑞典国家老龄化和 Kungsholmen 护理研究的 AUC 和 95%CI 为 0.77（0.57，0.97），健康与退休研究-老龄化、人口统计学和记忆研究的 AUC 和 95%CI 为 0.76（0.70，0.83），心血管健康研究认知研究的 AUC 和 95%CI 为 0.70（0.67，0.72），拉什记忆和衰老项目的 AUC 和 95%CI 为 0.66（0.62，0.70）。
CogDrisk 和 CogDrisk-AD 在四项研究中表现良好。总的来说，该工具可用于评估各种人群中痴呆和 AD 的个体风险因素。
