Nash Kirsty L, Alexander Karen, Melbourne-Thomas Jess, Novaglio Camilla, Sbrocchi Carla, Villanueva Cecilia, Pecl Gretta T
Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia.
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia.
Rev Fish Biol Fish. 2022;32(1):19-36. doi: 10.1007/s11160-020-09629-5. Epub 2021 Jan 3.
The oceans face a range of complex challenges for which the impacts on society are highly uncertain but mostly negative. Tackling these challenges is testing society's capacity to mobilise transformative action, engendering a sense of powerlessness. Envisaging positive but realistic visions of the future, and considering how current knowledge, resources, and technology could be used to achieve these futures, may lead to greater action to achieve sustainable transformations. Future Seas (www.FutureSeas2030.org) brought together researchers across career stages, Indigenous Peoples and environmental managers to develop scenarios for 12 challenges facing the oceans, leveraging interdisciplinary knowledge to improve society's capacity to purposefully shape the direction of marine social-ecological systems over the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030). We describe and reflect on Future Seas, providing guidance for co-developing scenarios in interdisciplinary teams tasked with exploring ocean futures. We detail the narrative development for two futures: our current trajectory based on published evidence, and a more sustainable future, consistent with the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, which is technically achievable using existing and emerging knowledge. Presentation of -- and futures-together-allows communication of both trajectories, whilst also highlighting , sustainable versions of the future. The advantages of the interdisciplinary approach taken include: (1) integrating different perspectives on solutions, (2) capacity to explore interactions between Life Under Water (Goal 14) and other SDGs, and (3) cross-disciplinary learning. This approach allowed participants to conceptualise shared visions of the future and co-design transformative pathways to achieving those futures.
The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s11160-020-09629-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
海洋面临一系列复杂挑战，其对社会的影响高度不确定，但大多是负面的。应对这些挑战正在考验社会动员变革性行动的能力，引发一种无力感。设想积极但现实的未来愿景，并思考如何利用当前的知识、资源和技术来实现这些未来，可能会促使采取更多行动以实现可持续转型。“未来海洋”（www.FutureSeas2030.org）汇聚了不同职业阶段的研究人员、原住民和环境管理者，针对海洋面临的12项挑战制定情景方案，利用跨学科知识提升社会在联合国海洋科学促进可持续发展十年（2021 - 2030年）期间有目的地塑造海洋社会生态系统发展方向的能力。我们描述并反思“未来海洋”，为跨学科团队共同制定情景方案提供指导，这些团队的任务是探索海洋的未来。我们详细阐述了两种未来的情景构建：基于已发表证据的当前轨迹，以及更可持续的未来，这与联合国可持续发展目标一致，利用现有和新兴知识在技术上是可以实现的。同时呈现这两种未来情景，既能够传达两条轨迹，又突出了未来更可持续的版本。所采用的跨学科方法的优势包括：（1）整合对解决方案的不同观点；（2）有能力探索水下生物（目标14）与其他可持续发展目标之间的相互作用；（3）跨学科学习。这种方法使参与者能够构想未来的共同愿景，并共同设计实现这些未来的变革性途径。
补充信息SI：在线版本包含补充材料，可在(10.1007/s11160 - 020 - 09629 - 5)获取，补充材料供授权用户使用。
